American Hegemony at a Critical Juncture, Lessons from History's Great Powers

Ketan Patel^1,2*

• ¹Other, London, United Kingdom
• ²Force for Good, London, United Kingdom

At the 2024 election, Americans confronted a pivotal choice about their nation's global trajectory amid mounting debate over the direction of U.S. hegemony. This study examines whether the United States is undergoing a phase of hegemonic decline, nearing the end of its status as the world's leading great power or whether its power continues or can be enhanced. The study combines quantitative modelling of historical power lifecycles with qualitative analysis of recurring markers indicating decline to assess how past patterns align with contemporary U.S. conditions. Our quantitative forecasts identify potential inflection points for American dominance between 2032 and 2067, while our qualitative review highlights salient markers of hegemonic weakening, such as overextension, internal polarization, loss of moral authority, the rise of rival powers, fractured alliances, and diminished rule-setting capacity. Together, these methods provide a cohesive framework for evaluating whether the United States faces a phase of relative decline or a systemic loss of global primacy. Although America retains multidimensional strengths, it already exhibits several classic signs of great-power decline. Our findings lay the groundwork for further research into the timing, drivers, and agents of any future transition in U.S. hegemony, as well as the potential impacts of the new administration's policies on the durability of American leadership.