The impact of governance on political stability in Jordan (2002–2022)

This study examines the influence of governance on political stability in Jordan from 2002 to 2022. The objective is to assess the correlation between governance and political stability by investigating many facets of governance, including the rule of law, governmental efficacy, anti-corruption measures, and regulatory quality, to ascertain their influence on political stability in Jordan. A quantitative analytic technique employing time series and sophisticated statistical methods was utilized, including unit root tests (ADF and PP) to assess data stationarity, and the Johansen cointegration test to examine long-term correlations among variables. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis was utilized to assess the direct influence of governance characteristics on political stability. The study's shortcomings stem from its exclusive emphasis on time series data for Jordan over a specific timeframe, potentially impacting the generalizability of the findings to other situations. The findings indicated that the rule of law was the predominant factor influencing political stability, whereas legislative competence and government performance exerted a lesser influence. The findings indicated a substantial cointegration connection between governance and political stability, underscoring the significance of effective governance in fostering political stability in Jordan.

Introduction

The concept of governance is closely related with the preservation of political stability and the accomplishment of sustainable development in any country. Effective governance procedures help to promote the rule of law, openness, and political participation, therefore enabling the accomplishment of political stability. Governance has greatly influenced Jordan's political environment during the past two decades; political and economic changes meant to improve democratic institutions and achieve sustainable development stem from this influence of governance. Establishing the political scene has been much aided by governance (Cascini and Ricciardi, 2025).

Since the year 2002, Jordan has had several political, economic, and social changes that have affected the political stability of her nation. Strengthening government performance as well as raising transparency and responsibility has made governance an increasingly important tool for overcoming challenges. This is the setting in which successive Jordanian governments have carried out several actions meant to improve the institutional framework, increase the influence of parliament and civil society, and create synergy between the public and commercial sectors. Still, there are challenges to reaching the stated goals include economic inequality, unemployment, corruption, and outside world pressures that stand in the way (Tajeddine, 2025).

When we discuss governance, we are talking to a set of ideas and policies meant to enhance the way people interact with their governments and thereby improve government running. Among these are the enhancement of democracy, the protection of human rights, and the building of strong and efficient institutions to ensure the delivery of services that are both fair and effective. Jordan has applied several different approaches to improve the running of the nation. These strategies cover legislative reform, public sector development, judicial independence enhancement, and political involvement stimulation by means of regional and parliamentary elections. Legislative changes and regulations development (Tajeddine, 2025).

One of the most important factors influencing thorough development is political stability as it promotes economic growth, draws investments, and improves the quality of living for national citizens. In Jordan, the government has considered the preservation of political stability a strategic goal; so, certain actions have been taken to reach this purpose in front of a turbulent environment in the country. Political stability in Jordan is linked nonlinearly with governance. This is so because the connection is shaped by several elements, including society's reaction to changes, the degree of policy implementation's efficiency, and the challenges in the social and economic realms (Cascini and Ricciardi, 2025).

By means of an analysis of the implemented reform measures and an evaluation of their impact on political stability, this paper explores the role of governance on the political stability of Jordan throughout the period of time ranging from 2002 to 2022. Furthermore, the aim of this study is to look at the factors influencing the success or failure of these reforms and provide recommendations for bettering governance to so generate greater stability and sustainable development.

One of the most crucial questions the study tries to answer is: How much does the degree of political system stability in Jordan affect national governance? Regarding the application of governance policies during the past 20 years, what factors have been either beneficial or detrimental? What actions may be implemented to improve Jordan's governance structure so as to ensure political stability over the long run?

Using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model, this study approaches quantitatively. These metrics serve as explanatory variables to ascertain the degree to which political stability in Jordan is influenced by governance indices. Apart from the examination of statistical data obtained from official reports and international indices related to governance and political stability, a review of pertinent literature will be done in order to assist the findings.

In essence, establishing good governance in Jordan is an endless challenge requiring the participation of all pertinent players, including the government, parliament, civil society, and national business sector. This study will be very significant as it will offer a more thorough knowledge of the part government performs in reaching political stability. Furthermore, it will provide useful suggestions that help to enhance state administration and encourage good contact between the government and people, thereby enabling the accomplishment of sustainable growth and long-term stability.

Literature review

Previous studies help one to understand the relationship between political stability and governance. Analyzing the relationship between government efficiency, anti-corruption policies, regulatory quality, and the rule of law as independent variables, these studies have examined the impact of governance on stability from many angles. Political stability will be the dependent variable from 2002 to 2022. This improves understanding of how governance may help Jordan to reach political stability.

Literature review about rule of law on political stability

The process of stabilizing political regimes and promoting political stability depends much on the rule of law, claims (Тирских, 2019). Research by Abaidoo and Agyapong (2021) shows that improvements in the rule of law along with other facets of governance might help to lessen the negative impacts of macroeconomic concerns on political stability in developing nations. Empirical research shows that countries enforcing the rule of law typically have larger administrations and more political stability (Holcombe and Rodet, 2012). This runs counter to the view held by individuals in power that corrupt systems help them. This implies that those in political authority might stand to gain from the application of a more objective and fair judicial system. Moreover, Lindquist and Cross (2010) claim that effective citizen management and the assurance of equal treatment of comparable circumstances call for legal stability and predictability, which are fundamental traits of the rule of law. Two elements helping to maintain the stability of justice in common law regimes are the allegiance to precedent and the stare decisis principle.

One of the most crucial areas of research in understanding governance and the effects it has for sustainable development is the relationship between political stability and legal rule. Mahmood et al. (2021) underline, especially in countries in South Asia, the importance of competent government in the process of developing sustainable environmental policy. By encouraging sustainable energy practices, enhanced legal frameworks could help to support political stability since their research shows that the rule of law has a negative impact on the use of nonrenewable energy sources while having a positive influence on renewable energy sources. Ha and Nguyen (2023) investigate how bank stability in ASEAN countries relates to institution quality. This inquiry occurs in a different environment. According to their research, financial stability which is closely linked to political stability is determined in great part by the rule of law. Strong rule of law not only boosts government efficiency but also helps to lower corruption levels. This leads to a more stable political environment that benefits financial inclusion and economic progress by means of stability.

Vega-Muñoz et al. (2025) investigate in great detail the elements influencing skilled migration. According to their results, sustaining talent mostly depends on political stability and the rule of law. The results of their research show that systems of government that uphold the rule of law might help to balance the negative effects of economic disparity and foreign interference, both of which often lead to the loss of intellectual capital. This emphasizes the need of a political climate that is stable, one in which the rule of law not only helps to maintain competent people in the employment but also motivates a feeling of belonging and an active involvement in civic life.

Furthermore, Gebrihet et al. (2024) look at the link between health outcomes and economic growth, stressing the part institutional quality which comprises the rule of law plays as a mediator in this link. Research results show that countries with stronger institutional structures are more likely to see more notable positive effects of health on economic growth. This relationship helps one to see that political stability supported by the rule of law is absolutely vital for the development of an environment in which advancements in health may turn into economic benefits, hence continuing the cycle of stability and prosperity.

The results of these studies show together that a basic component influencing political stability in many different contextual environments is the rule of law. By implementing a legal framework that promotes accountability and reduces cases of corruption, countries may enhance their political stability, therefore supporting continuous economic and social development. The corpus of studies offered here emphasizes the need of legislators giving the enhancement of the rule of law top priority as a strategic approach to guarantee political stability and help to achieve more general developmental goals.

H1: Rule of law on political stability positively effects on political stability.

Literature review about government effectiveness on political stability

Studies find that the stability of the political system and the effectiveness of the government are closely related to one another. With the control of corruption having a major impact, the efficacy of the government and political stability show a good association. Kartiko (2024) and Al-Tal and Al-Tarawneh (2021) both of these components help to explain the consumption of energy in MENA countries. Based on results of studies on EU members, about half of them show high degrees of political stability and government efficiency. Conversely, countries in Central and Eastern Europe clearly need growth in these spheres (Androniceanu et al., 2022). It's intriguing to observe how business practices and political concerns combine in a complex manner. Rising market pressures cause politically affiliated companies to show better profitability as government efficiency increases. On the other side, more political stability can lead to lower profitability quality among these businesses. This is so because, as said by Harymawan and Nowland (2016), the certainty of rewards decreases the need to respond to market forces.

Political stability guided by competent governance is very essential for economic development. Stable political conditions, according to Ritahi and Echaoui (2024), help entrepreneurship and investment to flourish, both of which are vital for economic development. Meo (2017) explores the relationship between political stability, government efficiency, and corruption in connection to the performance of the stock market for South Asian countries from 1989 to 2015 using the panel VECM model. Using cross-country regression analysis to investigate the theory that state repression is negatively linked with government performance, DiPietro (2016) found that well-functioning states rely less on coercion against their populace and practice less repression. These results provide some insight on the complicated character of the delicate relationship between the stability of the political system and the efficiency of the government.

H2: Government effectiveness is positively impacted by political stability.

Literature review about control of corruption on political stability

Studies have demonstrated that political stability, the control of corruption, and economic development in many different countries are intricately related. According to research by Asongu and Nwachukwu (2015), political stability has a positive effect on the control of corruption but a negative effect on corruption itself. Particularly in countries with low political product quality, it is clear that the maintenance of political stability depends on the government's and control of corruption's effectiveness (Kartiko, 2024). Adefeso (2018) argues that the simultaneous adoption of policies for political stability and corruption control may have negative consequences on the development of African countries, so highlighting the need of conducting reforms in a sequential manner. Beju et al. (2024) examined countries in Europe and Asia and found that political stability which is defined as the probability of government instability had a quite positive impact on the degrees of corruption faced by those countries. Considering the specific situation of every country or territory, the results of this study underscore the need of customizing policies to the control of corruption and the preservation of political stability.

Research by Li et al. (2020) in what ways may corruption impair government apparatus, political and financial capacity? Comparative statics shows how personalistic government and corruption interact as well as how crisis risk impacts corruption tolerance. Examined also is corruption by governmental officials. Low financial capability forces the state to over-tolerate corruption in order to keep allies, therefore compromising crisis management. Model forecasts, in line with current cross-country panel data, state political stability and corruption are not monotonic over fiscal competency.

H3: Controlling corruption has a positive impact on political stability.

Literature review about regulatory quality on political stability

Studies show that political stability and regulatory quality are connected and significantly affect financial system soundness and economic development. Rising GDP growth rates and per-worker GDP are related with political stability (Altun, 2016). Good quality of regulatory governance helps to ensure stability of the financial system; good public sector governance strengthens this impact (Das et al., 2004). While political responsibility has little influence on the quality of regulatory decisions, formal independence of regulatory authorities helps to ensure the quality of these decisions (Koop and Hanretty, 2018). Political stability has been seen in Turkey to improve environmental quality by reducing CO₂ emissions, therefore complementing the advantages of patents in environmental technology and utilization of renewable energy sources (Kirikkaleli and Osmanli, 2023). These results emphasize the need of political stability and effective regulatory governance in promoting economic development, financial stability, and environmental sustainability over numerous conditions.

Political stability benefits foreign direct investment (FDI) in ASEAN countries, claims (Priyadi et al., 2024). This is thus because stable surroundings draw investors seeking lower risk profiles. Low policy quality might, on the other hand, deter investment, implying that both criteria must be consistent if we are to reach the highest potential economic results (Priyadi et al., 2024). Stability of political systems and the quality of laws greatly increase entrepreneurial activity. One standard deviation increase in these measures might help 30–52% of new enterprises started to flourish (Chambers and Munemo, 2017). Chambers and Munemo (2017) claim that too high regulatory obstacles might hinder entrepreneurial activities, thereby underlining the need of following policies with balance. Handoyo and Fitriyah (2018) claim that, while with small correlation coefficients, environmental sustainability and political stability and regulatory quality have a beneficial relationship. Handoyo and Fitriyah (2018) claim that this discovery suggests that environmental outcomes are not solely determined by governance characteristics even if they help sustainability projects.

H4: Regulatory quality positively affects political stability.

Theoretical perspectives on how governance effects on political stability

Governance and political stability have a complicated relationship incorporating several theoretical points of view showing how different governance structures influence stability. Since it affects the political, social, and economic systems of a society, effective governance is usually considered as necessary for political stability. The next parts define necessary theoretical models that help to define this relationship.

Effective governance, characterized by openness and responsibility, fosters political stability by building public confidence and thereby reduces corruption (Białobłocki, 2014). By laying clear rules and conflict resolution techniques, a thorough legal framework best shown by a constitution can support political stability (Lee, 2019). Democratic Structures: As seen in the writings of political thinkers as Aristotle and de Tocqueville Hill, Democratic administration is supposed to improve stability via inclusiveness and reduced disagreement.

Governance that promotes social justice and answers concerns would help to reduce discontent and strengthen stability (Białobłocki, 2014).

While both points of view stress the positive impact of government on political stability, it is important to recognize that authoritarian administrations may also lead to stability even if they might limit opposition and maintain order by means of control. This complexity suggests that the relationship between political stability and governance is not always linear and may vary significantly under different conditions.

Synthesis of theoretical frameworks with empirical data from past studies could help to clarify the relationship between governance and political stability in Jordan. Studies show that in many national settings, good government measured by the rule of law, government effectiveness, corruption control, and regulatory quality improves political stability. The empirical study on Jordan in this paper is based on these indicators.

These theoretical ideas are almost proven in the Jordanian setting. Jordan carried out many reform initiatives between 2002 and 2022 to enhance legal frameworks, institutional effectiveness, and administrative responsibility. These modifications closely fit theories of democratic governance and institutionalism, which hold that inclusive and open government processes strengthen the legitimacy of state institutions and thereby stabilize political environments (Aligica et al., 2019). Jordan's emphasis on the rule of law matches van der Meer (2017) claim that political trust and lasting stability depend on legal predictability and fairness.

Moreover, as underlined in several theoretical models, the control of corruption is naturally related to public confidence and the legitimacy of the administration. In Jordan, despite ongoing efforts to combat corruption, public opinion and outside evaluations, including those of the World Bank Governance Indicators, indicate that it still presents a problem that sometimes erodes public confidence and therefore affects the overall stability of the democratic system. This supports Youvan (2024) claim that over time poor institutional controls and increased oppression might compromise government.

Jordan's gradual development of sectoral regulation—especially in areas like energy, environment, and finance—shows also the theoretical basis that regulatory quality enhances political order. According to Koop and Hanretty (2018), transforming regulation into lasting stability depends on the official independence of regulatory agencies, a quality only somewhat fulfilled in Jordan since political influence still permeates certain regulatory domains.

Including these theoretical models into the research not only strengthens the empirical results but also clarifies the processes by which elements of governance affect political stability in the Jordanian setting. Quantitative research in this paper confirmed the theoretical premise that legal frameworks are vital for state legitimacy and social order by showing that the rule of law most strongly affects political stability.

All things considered, the convergence of theory and practice suggests that governance in Jordan, albeit somewhat constrained by structural and regional factors, has had a measurable and theoretically consistent impact on political stability. Future modifications should thus be guided by these theoretical results, so ensuring that improvements in governance are both technical and institutionally integrated, as well as socially sensitive.

Methodology

Using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model, this study uses a quantitative approach to investigate how political stability in Jordan from 2002 to 2022 is impacted by governance. With political stability as the dependent variable, the study uses World Bank global governance data including four independent variables: rule of law, government effectiveness, control of corruption, and regulatory quality. This approach aims to provide a comprehensive analytical framework for assessing the relationship between these elements and investigating the extent of how governance affects political stability in Jordan.

This paper uses annual data and a quantitative approach to evaluate the relationship between political stability and governance. This approach is appropriate for the kind of research as it allows a precise analysis of variables across time, clarifying changes in political stability in connection with improvements in the indicators of governance. Using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model helps to precisely evaluate the relationship between variables. Because of its ability to identify causal links among variables, ordinary least squares (OLS) is an often used statistical model in political and economic studies.

The study utilizes the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). These indicators offer uniform and comparable data across many governmental domains, transcending country boundaries and historical periods.

Dependent variable

Political stability evaluates the likelihood of a government running into violent events or unlawful changes covering civil disturbance and terrorism.

Independent variables

Rule of Law evaluates people's and organizations' degree of legal legislation compliance, contract enforcement's effectiveness, and protection of fundamental liberties.

Indicates the quality of public services, the autonomy of the civil service from political pressures, and the degree of policy formation and implementation by the government, government effectiveness

Control of corruption

Evaluates public and government sectors' degree of corruption as well as the effectiveness of programs meant to reduce it. Indicates the government's ability to create and implement policies and rules improving the business climate and supporting economic development.

Method of data analysis

The link between the independent and dependent variables will be evaluated by means of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model on the data. This model evaluates the influence of every independent variable on political stability degrees by use of linear regression analysis. Table 1 shows an overview of the independent and dependent variables used in the study, along with the sources of data for each. One might represent the model by the next equation:

$\begin{array}{l}PSt=\alpha +\beta 1RLt+\beta 2GEt+\beta 3CCt+\beta 4RQt+\epsilon t\end{array}$

Table 1

Table 1. Worldwide governance indicators world bank, by author.

Jarque-Bera test

Commonly used for assessing normality in statistics and econometrics, the Jarque-Bera (JB) test has experienced various changes and extensions. With specified mean, variance, or both, Glinskiy et al. (2024) made changes to evaluate normality showing improved power comparing to other often used tests. Ciuiu (2008) examined many distribution forms and kernel estimation methods to assess the usage of transformations in cases when the JB test fails. Da et al. (2023) used functional empirical techniques to provide generalized tests for fitting arbitrary distributions, hence extending the JB test beyond normality. Using Mardia's and Srivastava's metrics of multivariate skewness and kurtosis, Koizumi et al. (2009) created new normality tests in the multivariate domain recommending bivariate tests as natural extensions of the original JB test. These studies together increase the relevance and efficiency of the JB test throughout several statistical environments and distributions.

This is a study environment analysis of the Jarque-Bera test results displayed in Table 2. The Jarque-Bera test evaluates the degree of data distribution conformance to a normal distribution. The null hypothesis claiming a normal distribution will determine the probability value. The conclusions clarify as follows: PS (0.64), GE (0.49), and CC (0.85). We fail to reject the null hypothesis, implying that these variables follow a normal distribution as the probability values for these variables surpass the conventional significance level (0.05). RQ (0.36): Although the probability value is less than some other values, it still above 0.05, suggesting inadequate data to disproportional the normal distribution hypothesis. Although it lacks enough strength to clearly reject the null hypothesis, RL (0.06) comes close to the 0.05 threshold and indicates a possible slight divergence from the normal distribution. The results show that most of the studied factors follow a normal distribution.

Table 2

Table 2. Jarque-Bera test, by researcher; Eviews.

Unit root test

Especially in macroeconomic research, the interpretation of time series data depends critically on unit root tests. These tests determine if a time series has a unit root or is stable, therefore affecting statistical inference (Leybourne and McCabe, 1994; Shrestha, 2006). With notable values provided for common testing, several approaches—including parametric regression tests and non-parametric modifications—have been developed (Banerjee, 1993). Phillips and Perron (1988) developed new nonparametric tests to address models with fitted drift and temporal trends, therefore enabling examination of a wide spectrum of weakly dependant and heterogeneously distributed data. These tests distinguish stationarity around a deterministic trend from unit root non-stationarity. Ten of the eighteen variables in Shrestha's 2006 unit root tests on Nepalese macroeconomic data had unit roots. Emphasizing the need of considering structural discontinuities in unit root analysis, the study also revealed structural changes in the Nepalese economy following mid-1980s.

The results of Table 3 concerning the unit root test carried out using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests are analyzed here:

Table 3

Table 3. “Augmented Dickey-Fuller ADF” and “Phillip-Perron PP”, unit root test results Jordan, by researcher, Eviews 12.

The unit root test aims to find if the investigated time series is stationary or has a unit root, therefore indicating non-stationarity. The results are examined using probability values (Prop), in which case the null hypothesis (H0) suggests the existence of a unit root, therefore rendering the series non-stationary. We reject the null hypothesis and find that the series is stationary if the p-value is under the conventional significance level (0.05).

Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test outcomes: Except for RQ (0.02) and CC (0.04), all variables have probability values >0.05 at the designated level, implying that most of them have a unit root and are thus non-stationary. First distinction: All values are near zero (0.000 or very close), implying that after the first difference all variables are stationary and so first-order I.(1).

The Phillips-Perron (PP) test's findings: Excluding RQ (0.02), CC (0.02), and PS (0.04), the other variables have p-values outside 0.05, thereby indicating that most series are non-stationary at level. First difference: All values are almost zero (0000 or close by), meaning that all time series are stationary following the first difference.

The ADF and PP results show that although almost all variables show a unit root at the level, they become stationar following the first difference. These time series are thus classified as I(1), meaning that stability requires a single differential. This suggests that any modeling study using such data (e.g., regression models) has to consider cointegration to prevent misleading associations.

Cointegration analysis

Examining long-term relationships between nonstationary economic variables is mostly dependent on the Johansen cointegration test (Zhong and Lei, 2008). Still, various difficulties have been noted with its use. Turner (2009) found that several econometric software applications use erroneous critical values, which increases the tendency to reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration. Zhou (2000) found that small-sample bias in Johansen's likelihood ratio tests causes a greater frequency of null hypothesis rejections than asymptotic theory would have expected. Zhou suggested a bootstrapping method for obtaining important values particular to the current work. Bilgili (1998) noted that although Johansen's technique is better at spotting cointegration links, the Engle-Granger approach is not as good. Zhong and Lei (2008) emphasizes the need of suitable application, which consists of careful examination of deterministic factors, necessary thresholds, and the finding of cointegration despite these challenges. These results highlight the need of careful interpretation of cointegration study results, especially in cases of small sample sizes.

Table 4 shows the results of the Johansen cointegration test, which reveal long-term equilibrium links among the investigated variables. To find the number of cointegrating equations, the test makes use of the trace statistic, evaluated against the critical value at a significance level of 0.05.

Table 4

Table 4. Johansson cointegration test, by researcher, Eviews.

The table shows that the trace statistic exceeds the critical values for the first three hypotheses (none, at most 1, at least 2), so rejecting the null hypothesis at these levels and so indicating the presence of three cointegrating linkages among the variables. On the other hand, the trace statistic indicates the lack of further cointegrating vectors by falling below the critical threshold for At most 3 and At most 4.

The results show that the investigated variables show long-term co-movement in three equilibrium relationships, therefore indicating the presence of cointegration among them; they are not totally independent. Therefore, dynamic correlations between variables may be investigated using models such as the OLS model, therefore improving the validity of economic models produced from this data.

Result

After using the “OLS” method to estimate the parameters of the standard model in “Eviews12”, the following results were obtained:

The results of the ordinary least squares (OLS) model estimation about the link between the dependent variable and the independent variables are presented in the Table 5. The relevance of the variables is evaluated using the approximations of the coefficients, standard error, t-statistics, and p-values.

Table 5

Table 5. Ols results.

With a P-value of 0.51 the coefficient value (−18.4) is statistically insignificant, implying that at the 5% level the impact of the fixed factors on the dependent variable is not significant.

With a P-value of 0.0002, which is <0.05, the coefficient (2.54) shows a statistically significant and positive effect on the dependent variable; consequently, the null hypothesis has to be rejected and the presence of a strong significant link is affirmed.

With a P-value of 0.77 and a coefficient of −0.15, this variable has a modest and insignificant negative influence on the dependent variable, implying that it does not significantly influence it either. With a coefficient value of 0.48, which is positive but statistically negligible (P-value = 0.37), the GE variable has a minimum influence on the dependent variable.

With a P-value of 0.05, the CC variable has a negative impact (−0.64) and is somewhat significant at the 0.05 level, suggesting that although this variable may have some influence but additional research is needed.

With R-squared (0.60), the independent variables in the model clearly explain 60% of the variance in the dependent variable, therefore indicating an acceptable but modest percentage.

Adjective R² (0.50): Following the correction for the number of variables, 50% of the variance is still accounted for, showing that certain factors may lack considerable effect.

The model's P-value overall is 0.003. A value <0.05 indicates the model's statistically significant nature and sufficient explanatory power.

DW = 1.99: Durbin-Watson statistic: For the integrity of the study, a score around 2 indicates the lack of autocorrelation among errors.

The results show that the RL variable has great statistical significance and is thus the most important in the model, hence clarifying the dependent variable. On the other hand, the absence of importance of the RQ and GE variables indicates their limited or nonexistent influence. Though it is statistically significant at the lowest reasonable criterion, the CC variable shows a little negative effect. With an R² value of 0.60, further unexplained elements would be influencing the dependent variable. The Durbin-Watson statistic (1.99) supports even more the absence of autocorrelation, therefore enhancing the validity of the results.

Conclusion

A strong basis that promotes sustained development in any country is political stability. It is also closely related to the ability of the country to handle both domestic and international challenges. This study looked at how political stability in Jordan from 2002 to 2022 could be influenced by governance. Emphasizing essential governance characteristics such the rule of law, government efficacy, anti-corruption measures, legislative effectiveness, and responsibility, modern statistical approaches were used to examine the relationship between governance and political stability. Stationarity was evaluated using time series analysis; long-term relationships among variables were investigated using the Johansen cointegration test. Moreover, direct effect of governance on political stability was investigated using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis.

All time series for the variables in the study were non-stationary at the first level according to unit root tests including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. Still, when using the initial difference, these series reached stationarity, meaning these variables follow a first-order integration process I(1). This result shows that Jordan's political stability and governance are sensitive to temporal fluctuations and so require flexible strategies to preserve equilibrium.

Three long-term equilibrium correlations among the variables related with governance and political stability were found using the Johansen cointegration test. The results suggest that improving governance might help to create long-standing political stability. This also shows the need of good governance in fostering political stability as programs of governance such as the rule of law and responsibility help to reduce corruption and increase confidence in national institutions.

The results of the ordinary linear regression revealed that political stability was much impacted by various governance elements, especially the rule of law. Given its great statistical relevance, the rule of law proved to be the most important factor fostering political stability. On the other hand, the quality of law had no appreciable impact on political stability, implying that laws by themselves are insufficient for reaching stability without effective implementation systems. Political stability was not statistically significantly influenced by government effectiveness or anti-corruption policies, thus improvements in administrative efficiency and corruption avoidance do not automatically guarantee political stability without considering other influencing elements.

The results of this study highlight the need of good government in achieving political stability; the rule of law is clearly the key element in supporting such stability. This result supports earlier studies conducted elsewhere, where political stability is clearly fostered by an autonomous and fair court system. Moreover, a crucial aspect of government that influences the stability of the democratic system is tackling corruption. Still, the results showed that even if combating corruption is important, it is insufficient to bring political stability about for Jordan. Political stability might be more influenced by other factors such political involvement, social level, and economic situation.

The results of the conjoint tests show that political system stability is not just determined by governance; rather, it is related with social and economic factors. Political stability can be affected by regional events or economic crises regardless of the level of government of a country. From this vantage point, government might be seen as a contributing factor to political stability but cannot be claimed as the only one.

Jordan has managed to maintain its political stability in spite of certain governmental efforts that have promoted domestic equilibrium given the significant regional issues facing the Middle East and North Africa, notably the Arab Spring and the Syrian crisis. A comparison of Jordan with other regional states in governance suggests that some issues facing Jordan could mirror those faced by countries like Lebanon or Egypt, which have suffered political unrest as a result of similar crises. This regional background emphasizes how regional crises affect the Jordanian government's attempts to improve governance and achieve political stability.

Recommendations

Recommendations were developed to fit the results of the investigation. This paper will stress increasing aspects proved to promote political stability, while providing solutions to improve those that have not had major benefits.

The results show that the most important element in promoting political stability in Jordan is the “rule of law”; hence, the main advice is to improve judicial independence and create effective law enforcement policies. Creating a transparent and independent court system might help to increase political stability and strengthen people' faith in government institutions. This calls for the training of judges and government officials as well as the allocation of necessary resources to ensure the fair and effective administration of justice.

The results of the study showed that political stability had no statistical relevance on legal quality (RQ), suggesting that having good law by itself is not enough to reach stability. Therefore, improving legislative execution calls for the creation of administrative and executive systems to ensure the efficient and open implementation of laws. Executive institutions must be educated in the fair and efficient application of laws while offering the necessary tools for responsibility and control.

The third suggestion is to improve openness in all government activities given the importance of openness and responsibility in building confidence between citizens and the government. Government agencies have to be quite responsible and under public watch if they are to inspire confidence in them and help to maintain political stability. These projects have to include the creation of strict monitoring systems and the improvement of people's access to government knowledge.

Although good government and anti-corruption programs have little impact on political stability, the economic situation remains the main driving force. Therefore, it would be wise to implement economic reforms to improve performance in Jordan. Lowering unemployment rates and promoting economic development might help to relieve social and political tensions that could affect political stability. Economic policies have to be carried out to raise living standards, provide job opportunities, and promote local as well as foreign investment.

Though the research shows anti-corruption programs have little effect, they are nonetheless rather important for improving political stability. Formulating anti-corruption strategies that include sophisticated techniques with strong monitoring and rigorous anti-corruption enforcement is recommended. While providing support to monitoring and accountability bodies to ensure the fair implementation of laws, these policies must include anti-corruption instruments across all government levels.

The results of the study showed that political stability in Jordan is not only dependent on government but also influenced by social and economic concerns. Therefore, these factors have to be considered while formulating next policies. To enhance the durability of Jordan's democratic system, the government has to support political and social participation even as it works to reduce economic inequalities.

Data availability statement

The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.

Ethics statement

Ethical approval was not required for this study in accordance with the national legislation and the institutional requirements.

Author contributions

AA: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft.

Funding

The author(s) declare that no financial support was received for the research and/or publication of this article.

Conflict of interest

The author declares that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Generative AI statement

The author(s) declare that no Gen AI was used in the creation of this manuscript.

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