Rethinking Foreign Policy Change in a Complex World: The Dynamics of Strategic Reorientation Model (DSRM) as a Framework for Adaptive Statecraft

Yu Xunda¹Konstantin Moskalenko^1*Mohammad Anisur Rahaman²Natalia Taranova³

• ¹Department of Government Administration,, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
• ²Gopalganj Science and Technology University,, Gopalganj, Bangladesh
• ³International Scientific Cooperation Department, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University,, Saint Petersburg, 194100, Russia

Abstract In the context of rapid geopolitical transformations, shifting power dynamics, and the rise of new global actors, comprehending the mechanisms through which states adapt their foreign policies has become increasingly critical. Therefore, this study aims to explore the Dynamics of Strategic Coordination Model (DSRM), an analytical framework designed to explore how states reorient their foreign policy strategies in response to complex domestic and international pressures. However, to our knowledge, this study is one of the first to explicitly situate DSRM within the foreign policy coordination literature, highlighting the limitations of existing theories in capturing the complex, nonlinear, and reaction-driven nature of contemporary international relations. Moreover, the model integrates variables such as geopolitical coordination, economic and technological development, domestic political change, and institutional learning, providing a holistic view of state behavior. Through a qualitative comparative analysis of the US pivot to Asia, the EU's assertive stance towards Russia, and China's Belt and Road Initiative, this study explains how DSRM tracks the feedback loops, adaptive processes, and decision-making dynamics underlying strategic coordination. Significantly, these findings highlight the role of institutional, structural, and actor-level decisions in shaping foreign policy outcomes and demonstrate the significant potential of dynamic, systems-based approaches for scholars and policymakers. However, by providing a structural framework for analyzing and predicting foreign policy change, DSRM contributes to the development of careful international relations theory and provides practical insights for navigating the complexities of a rapidly evolving global landscape.