ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Polit. Sci.
Sec. International Studies
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpos.2025.1658413
This article is part of the Research TopicGeopolitical Transition and Competition Among Major Global Power Centers: Existential Security Challenges and Regional ConflictsView all 6 articles
Hedging under Hegemony: Domestic Pathways to Autonomy in Latin America
Provisionally accepted
Juan Pablo Sims*
Brice Tseen Fu Lee- Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile
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The accelerating rivalry between the United States and China has unsettled Latin America's long-standing security hierarchy and opened limited, but tangible, space for strategic manoeuvre. This article asks why only a handful of Latin American and Caribbean governments succeed in hedging, deepening economic ties with Beijing while retaining Washington's security umbrella, whereas ostensibly similar neighbours remain locked in one-sided alignment. Bridging hierarchy theory and new-institutional economics, it argues that effective hedging under U.S. regional hegemony depends on a domestic triad: robust state capacity, political stability, and resilient macro-economic fundamentals. A fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 14 countries (2013-2023) operationalises a novel Hedging Index that blends trade and arms-procurement shares. Six equifinal pathways emerge; all true hedgers possess at least one strong institutional or economic pillar, while states deficient in both invariably default to alignment. The findings refine hedging theory for hierarchical regions and highlight the practical value of institutional upgrading for strategic autonomy.
Keywords: Hedging, Regional hegemony, Qualitative Comparative Analysis, Latin America, power competition
Received: 02 Jul 2025; Accepted: 13 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Sims and Lee. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Juan Pablo Sims, jsims@udd.cl
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