The Impact of Population Density on the Socio-Economic Development of Russian Regions: From Correlation Portraits to the Cluster-Differentiated Density Governance

Vadim Bezverbny^*Tamara RostovskayaArseny SitkovskyStanislav Roslavtsev

• FGBUN Federal'nyj naucno-issledovatel'skij sociologiceskij centr Rossijskoj akademii nauk, Moscow, Russia

This article quantifies how population density shapes the socio‑economic trajectories of Russian regions and translates the results into an operational framework for place‑sensitive policy ("cluster‑differentiated density governance"). Using annual official statistics for 89 federal subjects over 1990–2025, we construct regional "correlation portraits" that relate density to demographic, social, and economic indicators; we then reduce these portraits by principal component analysis and typologize regions with k‑means. Four clusters emerge with stable and interpretable structures: (i) the two capitals (Moscow and Saint Petersburg), with distinctive density–economy linkages; (ii) agrarian–traditional republics of the South and North Caucasus, where rising density is generally associated with improvements in health, living standards, and per‑capita output; (iii) the industrial–urbanized belt of Central Russia, the Volga, the Urals, and parts of Siberia, dominated by negative associations between density and health/living‑standard indicators; and (iv) the Far North and Far East, exhibiting pronounced demographic contraction and the least favorable correlation profiles. Across most regions we also document robust inverse associations between density and per‑capita housing provision, reflecting chronic lag of housing supply behind population dynamics. The findings confirm that density effects are heterogeneous and context‑dependent rather than universal. We formalize these regularities into a governance matrix that differentiates strategies for managing ultra‑high density, capitalizing on increasing density, organizing smart shrinkage, and compensating the fixed costs of low density through nodal settlement and subsidized connectivity. The results underscore the need to treat density as a governable resource— linking demography, infrastructure, and the economy—rather than a passive background attribute of space. Keywords: population density, socio-economic development, regions of Russia, correlation analysis, clustering, density governance.