ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Sustain. Cities
Sec. Urban Economics
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/frsc.2025.1676983
This article is part of the Research TopicDynamic Land Use and Socioeconomic-Environmental Interaction Patterns: Bridging Sustainability and DevelopmentView all 11 articles
Evaluation of Land Spatial Suitability in the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area
Provisionally accepted
- 1School of Information Technology and Engineering, Guangzhou College of Commerce, Guangzhou, China
- 2Chinese Academy of Forestry Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Beijing, China
- 3Key Laboratory of Forestry Remote Sensing and Information System, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing, China
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The rapid urbanization and industrialization of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) pose a severe challenge for rational land use. This study presents a multi-factor land-use suitability assessment system with economic, social, and environmental dimensions. System reliability and stability are confirmed by a Cronbach's α coefficient (>0.7). We innovatively integrate the PS-DR-DP model with the Monte Carlo and Markov models. The Markov model analyzes transition probabilities between different land capacity states. The Monte Carlo method quantifies key parameter uncertainties through extensive random sampling, while the Markov chain-Monte Carlo approach dynamically evaluates and predicts land capacity. From 2002 to 2022, overall GBA land-population carrying capacity is stable above 0.6 and keeps rising, reflecting improved regional land capacity and successful coordinated development. However, the forecast results indicate that land capacity will first increase and then decrease between 2023 and 2042, with most cities reaching a peak carrying capacity (S-value approaching or exceeding 2) in 2027. This peak is followed by a projected decline, and by 2042, the overall land capacity may drop to around 0.5, signaling a significant long-term risk of overload. If current development trends continue, the region faces significant long-term risks of declining carrying capacity, particularly if the transition to a sustainable, innovation-driven economy is not managed effectively. This highlights the profound challenge of balancing economic growth, urbanization, and ecological protection.These recommendations offer scientific evidence and decision-making support for sustainable GBA development.
Keywords: Monte Carlo model, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA), Evaluation of Land Spatial Suitability, Markov model, PS-DR-DP model
Received: 03 Aug 2025; Accepted: 10 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Li, Li, Sun, Weng, Zhan and Yang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Bin Sun, sunbin@ifrit.ac.cn
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