Rethinking Shared Mobility: Analyzing the Commercial Sustainability of Demand-Responsive Transport in Dubai

Utpal DekaDeepthi Dilip^*

• Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

With the rapid pace of urbanization and the subsequent dominance of private vehicle usage, cities are under increasing pressure to offer sustainable alternatives to public transportation. Demand-Responsive Transport (DRT) systems offer flexible, technology-enabled services that bridge first-and last-mile connectivity gaps. This study assesses the operational and financial viability of Dubai's Bus-on-Demand (DBOD) service using Daganzo's continuum approximation framework, calibrated with empirical data from two service areas in Dubai. The study identified the Alternating Priorities (i.e. alternating between the nearest pick-up and drop-off) routing strategy as the best fit for the study area, balancing distance optimization with service consistency, contributing to shorter travel and waiting duration. Additionally, the findings also indicate that compact service areas with moderate demand levels generate the most cost-efficient operations. The optimal vehicle occupancy levels, to minimize agency costs, are estimated to be between 10-15 passengers per vehicle. The study further calibrates the Value of Time (VOT) for users, emphasizing the necessity of balancing agency and user costs for sustainable DRT implementation. As the VOT of users has not been calibrated elsewhere in literature, this study offers a practical approach to assess the commercial sustainability of these services, that is grounded in empirical evidence. Recommendations were also provided for optimizing fleet size and operational parameters to achieve cost efficiency. A comparative evaluation of three routing strategies across varying occupancy levels further confirms the superior cost-effectiveness of the Alternating Priorities approach, adopted by DBOD. Thus, the techniques adopted in this research focuses on several key aspects to enhance the efficiency of the DBOD system by optimizing the operating capacity, fleet size and routing strategy. From the study, it is recommended that transit agencies adopt the Alternating Priority routing strategy, maintain compact service areas, and refine vehicle dispatching, routing, and scheduling strategies to achieve optimal occupancy levels. These findings contribute to an empirical data-driven approach for transit agencies to evaluate and optimize DRT services, supporting informed decision-making for sustainable urban mobility.