Configurational Pathways to Post-COVID-19 Economic Recovery in the High-End Hotel Sector of Shandong Province, China: Evidence from csQCA

Yunhan Wang^*xuanyu zhu

• Macau University of Science and Technology, Taipa, Macao, SAR China

The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted the global hotel industry, with high-end hotels in China experiencing occupancy declines of over 50% in early 2020. In Shandong Province, revenue losses exceeded 60%, raising urgent questions about post-pandemic recovery. This study examines how combinations of operational and financial conditions influence hotel survival or decline. Drawing on Lipset's theory of institutional breakdown and economic decline, we apply crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA) to 20 high-end hotels in Shandong Province. Four variables—Average Room Rate Index (ARI), Contribution to Operating Profit (CTP), Gross Operating Profit Margin (GOP), and Revenue Generation Index (RGI)—were calibrated into binary sets to identify causal configurations. The results reveal three empirical configurations leading to economic survival and five leading to decline, with no single factor being necessary. Resilient hotels often combined high operating profit margins with favorable pricing or revenue generation, while imbalanced financial structures increased the risk of decline. This study contributes to crisis recovery research by mapping configurational pathways of resilience and demonstrating the value of csQCA in capturing the complex, conjunctural nature of hotel performance under extreme disruption.