SYSTEMATIC REVIEW article
Front. Vet. Sci.
Sec. Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fvets.2025.1648695
Quantitative risk assessment for infectious disease introduction in animal populations: a comprehensive review
Provisionally accepted
Ana Rita Pinheiro Marques1*
Laura Gonzalez Villeta2
Verity Horigan2
Clazien J. De Vos3Robin Simons2
Beate Conrady1- 1Section for Animal Health and Welfare, Kobenhavns Universitet, Copenhagen, Denmark
- 2Animal and Plant Health Agency, Addlestone, United Kingdom
- 3Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Lelystad, Netherlands
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Quantitative risk assessments (QRA) are valuable decision-support tools for estimating disease introduction risks in animal populations. This review analyzed peer-reviewed QRA studies published between 2010 and 2024 that focused on risk of introduction, aiming to identify methodological trends and challenges. From the 1,933 studies screened, only 34 (2%) met inclusion criteria, primarily assessing risk through movements of live animals (n=20), animal products (n=7), both live animals and their products (n=2), or vectors (n=5), with no studies addressing aquatic animals. Most QRAs focused on livestock (n= 11 ruminants, n= 6 swine, n= 4 poultry, n= 2 equids and n=1 ruminants and swine) and diseases like Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), Rabies virus (RABV), Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV), and African swine fever virus (ASFV), using stochastic approaches, frequently based on scenario tree and WOAH based methodology and supported by expert opinion. Cluster and network analyses revealed distinct methodological groupings and two main collaboration hubs in Europe and the United States. Key gaps included limited coverage of certain animal species, pathogens, and consequence assessments, with a predominant focus on import risks. Addressing these limitations can strengthen future QRAs as input for animal disease management.
Keywords: Animal Health, Disease risk, Quantitative risk assessment, import risk analysis, Introduction risk
Received: 17 Jun 2025; Accepted: 25 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Pinheiro Marques, Gonzalez Villeta, Horigan, De Vos, Simons and Conrady. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Ana Rita Pinheiro Marques, Section for Animal Health and Welfare, Kobenhavns Universitet, Copenhagen, Denmark
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