ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Vet. Sci.
Sec. Zoological Medicine
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fvets.2025.1667173
This article is part of the Research TopicPathogen Transmission at the Domestic-Wildlife Interface: A Growing Challenge that Requires Integrated Solutions - Volume IIView all 7 articles
WiBISS: A tool to estimate avoided lost revenue of African swine fever wild boar vaccination at municipality level
Provisionally accepted
Pablo Ibanez-Porras1,2,3
Jaime Bosch4
Francesco Feliziani5
Carmen Maresca5
Jose Manuel Sanchez-Vizcaino4
Irene Iglesias1,2,3
Cecilia Aguilar Vega4
Marta Martinez Aviles1,2,3*- 1Centro de Investigacion en Sanidad Animal, Valdeolmos, Spain
- 2Instituto Nacional de Investigacion y Tecnologia Agraria y Alimentaria, Madrid, Spain
- 3Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Spain
- 4Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- 5Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Umbria e delle Marche Togo Rosati, Perugia, Italy
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This study introduces the WiBISS model, a simulation tool designed to assess the economic and epidemiological impact of a hypothetical African Swine Fever (ASF) vaccination in wild boar in Northern Italy. Using real ASF outbreak data from January 2022 to June 2024, the model evaluates how prompt vaccination could reduce disease spread and economic losses. WiBISS integrates three modules: vaccination simulation, restriction zone estimation, and economic impact analysis. The first two use custom-built cellular automata (CA) in Python and ArcGIS Pro, modeling each ASF case as a cell that can be in one of three states: unvaccinated, infected, or vaccinated. Weekly iterations over 2.5 years simulate ASF progression and vaccination impact based on localized interactions and a defined vaccination radius. Three vaccination scenarios were tested: (1) a non-vaccination baseline; (2) an "ideal" scenario with immediate, 100% vaccination; and (3) multiple "realistic" scenarios with an 8-week delay and varied vaccination rates (25–75%) and radii (10–50 km). The most effective realistic scenarios (e.g., 75% vaccination rate, 50 km radius) showed a total loss of €601,800, close to the ideal scenario. WiBISS prioritizes usability over epidemiological complexity, omitting detailed virus transmission modeling to enhance applicability in data-scarce regions. Unlike detailed stochastic models, WiBISS offers rapid, economically grounded insights to guide initial outbreak response and resource allocation. Although it does not include domestic pigs due to differing transmission dynamics, WiBISS lays a foundation for phased, integrated wildlife vaccination planning that balances economic feasibility with ecological realism.
Keywords: Disease control strategies, cost analysis, Pig production, wildlife, ASF vaccine, rapidrisk assessment
Received: 16 Jul 2025; Accepted: 02 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Ibanez-Porras, Bosch, Feliziani, Maresca, Sanchez-Vizcaino, Iglesias, Aguilar Vega and Martinez Aviles. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Marta Martinez Aviles, martinez.marta@inia.csic.es
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.