ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Vet. Sci.
Sec. Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fvets.2025.1689704
Anticipating the Downturn: Business Cycle Forecasting for Veterinary Practice Strategy in the United States
Provisionally accepted
- 1Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States
- 2Applied Economics Consulting, LLC, Blacksburg, United States
- 3Veterinary Study Groups Inc, Johns Creek, United States
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Veterinary medicine is often considered recession-resistant, yet little empirical analysis has evaluated the industry's distinct economic cycle. This study models and forecasts the veterinary medicine business cycle using time series econometric techniques, focusing on inflation-adjusted consumer price index (CPI) and expenditure data from 2000 to 2025. Dynamic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models incorporating macroeconomic indicators—industrial production, real disposable income, and consumer sentiment—were used to estimate and forecast monthly trends in CPI and real expenditures. Forecasts reveal a continuing increase in veterinary service prices but a deceleration in real expenditures, indicating the industry entered a recessionary phase in late 2024. Prediction intervals suggest persistent negative growth through mid-2026, though with a potential for recovery toward the end of the forecast horizon. These results indicate an industry-specific business cycle that does not necessarily mirror the macroeconomy. The veterinary industry's current downturn presents both operational risks and strategic opportunities for practices, particularly in cost containment, workforce planning, and service innovation.
Keywords: veterinary economics, business cycle, Forecasting, Recession, PracticeManagement Strategies
Received: 20 Aug 2025; Accepted: 26 Sep 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Neill, Salois and McKay. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Clinton L Neill, cln64@cornell.edu
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