How Climate Predictions From Days to Decades Ahead Can Contribute to a More Sustainable Society

Climate change is happening now, and the warming of the climate system is affecting the availability of necessities like fresh water, food, and energy due to the rapid warming of the atmosphere, and the resultant increasing number of extreme weather events. There are large efforts to combat climate change through adaptation and mitigation in a multi-decadal perspective by using climate model projections of possible future scenarios. However, there has been significantly less research on how society can use climate predictions to better prepare for the impacts of climate change that we are already experiencing.

Here we challenge scientists to present robust and innovative results on how climate predictions from days to decades ahead can be used to contribute to a more sustainable society. As the term sustainable is widely used today, we call for a focus on environmental objectives related to e.g. climate mitigation, -adaptation, or sustainable use and protection of resources and ecosystems. The goal is for stakeholders to integrate information from climate predictions with their operational tools and decision-making. Thereby they can improve strategic planning to reduce the impacts abnormal weather and climate conditions may have on their businesses and resources. However, for the stakeholders to sufficiently trust the climate predictions to influence decision-making, scientists must communicate the accuracy, skill, and uncertainty of the prediction models, and the methodology and data to produce easily accessible predictions from days to decades ahead (e.g., following the FAIR principles).

Contributions on the following topics are welcome:

• How to generate seamless predictions from days to decades for better decision-making.
• “Proof of concept” examples of how dynamical and/or statistical weather-based predictions can be implemented for specific sectors.
• Lessons learned from past/ongoing projects or climate services focused on producing and improving climate predictions.
• Methods to produce skillful localized predictions of weather or impact variables for specific sectors.
• How to interpret the accuracy, skill, and uncertainty of climate predictions in an operational setting to make better decisions.