Research Title: Extreme Heat and Disease Burden in Southern Africa: A Systematic Review

Maeti Antoinette George^*

• National University of Lesotho, Roma, Lesotho

Global climate change affects human populations, aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, causing an interconnected nature of the intervention strategies that seek to improve human health. Statistical applications and mathematical modelling are pivotal and crucial for quantifying the future outcomes and understanding the effects of climate change on diseases. The study was intended to identify the extent to which predictive modelling was utilised in Lesotho in relation to the impact of drought on the spread of disease in human beings. This was a systematic review of literature on projections and predictions related to impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity in vulnerable communities, and ultimately on human health. Furthermore, the extent of research regarding the utilisation of models that attempt to curb the spread of climate-related diseases and their effectiveness, so that countries can respond promptly, was reviewed. It has been concluded that predictive modelling has not been applied in the southern African countries in the study, and this risks crop failure, disease spread, anxiety and mental health problems for affected communities. If used, statistical and predictive disease modelling and prediction along the interconnected threats brought by drought would enable an understanding of how and when diseases may spread, and how their spread can be controlled. The review recommends that these countries should develop predictive models using available hydrological parameters, meteorological and disease data. Forecasts of climate parameters and that of diseases should also be used, and this is supported by the availability of climate and health.