ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Astron. Space Sci.
Sec. Space Physics
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fspas.2025.1572313
This article is part of the Research TopicInnovative Approaches to Atmospheric Coupling and Geodetic Space Weather ResearchView all 3 articles
Tracking Reentries of Starlink Satellites During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 25
Provisionally accepted
- 1University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, United States
- 2NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, United States
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The exponential increase of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites in the past 5 years has brought into intense focus the need for reliable monitoring and reentry prediction to safeguard from space collisions and ground debris impacts. However, LEO satellites fly within the upper atmosphere region that exerts significant drag forces to their orbits, reducing their lifetimes, and increasing collision risks during dynamic events, like geomagnetic storms. Such conditions can become more severe during geomagnetic storms, particularly during extreme events. In this work, we use two-line element (TLE) satellite tracking data to investigate geomagnetic activity effects on the reentries of 523 Starlink satellites from 2020 to 2024. This period coincides with the rising phase of solar cycle 25, which has shown itself to be more intense than the previous solar cycle. We derive satellite altitudes and velocities from TLE files and perform a superposed epoch analysis, the first with hundreds of similar satellites. Even with limitedly accurate TLE data, our results indisputably show that satellites reenter faster with higher geomagnetic activity. This is explained by the fastest orbital decay rates (in km/day) of the satellites caused by increased drag forces. We also find that prediction errors, defined as the difference between the epochs of actual reentries and predicted reentries at reference altitudes, increase with geomagnetic activity. As a result, we clearly show that the intense solar activity of the current solar cycle has already had significant impacts on Starlink reentries. This is a very exciting time in satellite orbital drag research, since the number of satellites in LEO and solar activity are the highest ever observed in human history.
Keywords: Solar Activity, geomagnetic storms, Thermosphere response to storms, Satellite mega-constellations, satellite orbital drag, Satellite reentry
Received: 06 Feb 2025; Accepted: 19 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Oliveira, Zesta and Garcia-Sage. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Denny M Oliveira, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, United States
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