EDITORIAL article
Front. Astron. Space Sci.
Sec. Space Physics
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fspas.2025.1633634
This article is part of the Research TopicUncertainty Quantification and Model Validation in Space Weather ModelingView all 6 articles
Editorial: Uncertainty Quantification and Model Validation in Space Weather Modeling
Provisionally accepted
- 1Goddard Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, United States
- 2The Catholic University of America, Washington, United States
- 3Universitetet i Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- 4University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States
- 5West Virginia University, Morgantown, United States
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Earth space environment, and also a critical step in developing the ability to forecast space weather.Several competing models have been developed, so comparing and validating their results is essential 6 e.g., (Pulkkinen et al., 2013). However, there are uncertainties in the solar wind input to the models, 7 boundary conditions, and measurements against which the model outputs are validated. Quantifying these 8 uncertainties is also critical to comparing the model performances. Recent studies have shown that these 9 uncertainties can create biases that mimic physical effects and can be large for extreme space weather 10 events e.g., (Sivadas and Sibeck, 2022;Lockwood, 2022). The Committee on a Decadal Survey for Solar The simulated ground magnetic perturbations for the two storms investigated are higher than observations 22 for all models. This overestimation concerning the observations further increases with the inclusion of the 23 solar wind inputs or approximations required in MHD modeling might be the source of the discrepancies.
Keywords: uncertainty, Validation, machine learning, Space weather (2037), Magnetosphere (Magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions; Plasma convection), Ionosphere, Solar wind, Solar wind - Magnetosphere - Ionosphere coupling
Received: 22 May 2025; Accepted: 26 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Sivadas, Kwagala, Sachdeva and Al Shidi. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Nithin Sivadas, Goddard Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, United States
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