ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Cell. Infect. Microbiol.
Sec. Clinical and Diagnostic Microbiology and Immunology
Volume 15 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fcimb.2025.1574824
This article is part of the Research TopicTuberculosis treatment monitoring toolsView all 3 articles
Predictive analysis of all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension
Provisionally accepted
- 1The Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, ChangSha, China
- 2The Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, China
- 3The Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Center of Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, China
- 4The Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Department of Science and Education, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, China
- 5The Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Changsha Tuberculosis Research Institute, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, China
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Objective: To investigate the risk factors for all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension and construct a predictive model.We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of inpatients with previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis complicated by hypertension from 2019 to 2021 in Changsha Central Hospital. Patients' survival status and cardiovascular events were collected through telephone follow-up. LASSO regression was utilized to screen predictive variables, and binary logistic regression identified mortality risk factors. A predictive nomogram model was developed using R software, and its precision and reliability were verified.Results: Among the 1,014 patients, there were 100 (9.86%) deaths and 82 (8.09%) cardiovascular events. LASSO regression screened out 13 predictive variables.Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that smoking history, sputum bacteriology, pleural effusion, coronary heart disease, and chronic kidney disease were independent risk factors. Based on the training set data, a nomogram prognostic model was developed, showing an AUC of 0.712 (95% CI: 0.777-0.847), with 50.0% sensitivity and 84.3% specificity. The model's fit was confirmed through internal and external validations.The prediction model constructed in this study has high predictive ability and satisfactory clinical efficacy, and can provide an effective individualized prediction tool for assessing all-cause mortality risk in patients with previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis complicated by hypertension.
Keywords: previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis, Hypertension, Mortality rate, Risk factors, Prediction model
Received: 11 Feb 2025; Accepted: 24 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Cao, Nie, Zhong, Pei, Deng, Xie and Leng. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yiping Leng, The Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Changsha Tuberculosis Research Institute, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, China
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