ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Commun.
Sec. Culture and Communication
Volume 10 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fcomm.2025.1597886
When Numbers Remain Silent: The Protest Potential of Kazakhstan's Youth amid Social Tension
Provisionally accepted
- 1Abai University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
- 2Zhetysu University named after I. Zhansugurov, Taldy-Kurgan, Kazakhstan
- 3Nazarbayev Intellectual Schools, Astana, Kazakhstan
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We examine the 2019–2024 dynamics of protest sentiment among Kazakhstani youth using secondary sources only. We operationalize latent protest potential via three proxies—acceptability of unauthorized protest, institutional trust, and digital embeddedness—and summarize published indicators rather than original fieldwork. Central research question: Why did standard survey instruments fail to register latent youth discontent ahead of January 2022 in Kazakhstan, and what survey-adjacent indicators can improve early-warning under semi-authoritarian constraints? We answer by diagnosing the undercount mechanisms and by isolating a Kazakhstan-specific 'shock– trust–network' activation configuration (LPG price shock + trust downswing + decentralized coordination). Findings: attitudinal openness peaked in 2022–2023 and fell in 2024, while conversion to turnout is suppressed by legal repression, social stigma, and economic vulnerability. The framework monitors preconditions rather than predicting events and is applicable to similar semi-authoritarian contexts with appropriate calibration.
Keywords: Kazakhstan, protest sentiments, Youth Mobilization, January 2022 crisis, sociological forecasting, Structural inequality
Received: 21 Mar 2025; Accepted: 01 Sep 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Khamzina, Buribayev and Buribayeva. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yermek Buribayev, Zhetysu University named after I. Zhansugurov, Taldy-Kurgan, Kazakhstan
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