AI-Based Multimodal Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis and Capsular Invasion in cT1N0M0 Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Yulong Tang^*Xiaowei PengPeng WuWu LiTao Ou-YangShichu TangShiwei ZhouHui LiXiaohua Song

• Hunan Cancer Hospital, Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University, Changsha, China

Background: Accurate preoperative evaluation of cT1N0M0 papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is essential for guiding appropriate treatment strategies. Although ultrasound is widely used for clinical staging, it has limitations in detecting lymph node metastasis (LNM) and capsular invasion (CI), which may lead to misclassification of high-risk patients. Such undetected risks pose safety concerns for those undergoing radiofrequency ablation. This study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted predictive model that integrates ultrasound radiomics and deep learning features to improve the identification of LNM and CI, thereby enhancing risk stratification and optimizing treatment strategies for cT1N0M0 PTC patients.Methods: A total of 203 PTC patients were divided into high-risk (CI or LNM) and low-risk groups, with 142 assigned to the training set and 61 to the internal test set. Regions of interest delineation was performed using ITK-Snap. Radiomic features were extracted with PyRadiomics, and embedding features were obtained through the Vision Transformer (ViT) model. Risk-related features were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), variance thresholding, and recursive feature elimination (RFE). Single-modal and multimodal models were developed using feature-level and decision-level fusion. Feature importance was assessed using Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Model performance was evaluated using recall, accuracy, and area under curve (AUC).Results: Among 1,001 radiomics features, 47 were selected via LASSO and RFE, and 15 relevant features from 768 ViT features. In the internal test set, NeuralNet models based on radiomics and 2D deep learning achieved AUCs of 0.756 and 0.708, respectively, and 0.829 and 0.840 in the training set. The multimodal RandomForest model outperformed single-modality models, with an AUC of 0.763 in the test set and 0.992 in the training set. Decision-level fusion models, such as DLRad_LF_Avg and DLRad_LF_Max, improved the external test set AUC to 0.843. SHAP analysis identified key features linked to tumor heterogeneity.Conclusion: The multimodal AI model effectively predicts high-risk cT1N0M0 PTC, outperforming single-modality models and aiding clinical decision-making.