ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Endocrinol.
Sec. Gut Endocrinology
This article is part of the Research TopicGeno-phenotype Specific Molecular Targets for Therapeutic Developments in PancreatitisView all 8 articles
Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting unplanned readmission in patients with acute pancreatitis
Provisionally accepted
- The First People’s Hospital of Linping District,Hangzhou, Huzhou, China
Select one of your emails
You have multiple emails registered with Frontiers:
Notify me on publication
Please enter your email address:
If you already have an account, please login
You don't have a Frontiers account ? You can register here
Objective: To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting 1-year unplanned readmission in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) to identify high-risk populations. Methods: We retrospectively selected 474 AP patients who were treated and discharged from the First People's Hospital of Linping District, Hangzhou City from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2023. These patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=332) and an internal validation cohort (n=142) in a 7:3 ratio. In addition, 218 AP patients treated at the same time at the People's Hospital of Jiande City were selected as an external validation cohort. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) for variable selection and multivariable logistic regression for model development, and constructed a nomogram to estimate the risk of 1-year unplanned readmission. Compare through consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Within one year, the incidence of unplanned readmission in the training cohort was 36.1% (120/332), 40.1% (57/142) in the internal validation cohort, and 42.7% (93/218) in the external validation cohort. We identified six independent predictors of unplanned readmission in patients with AP. These predictors included biliary AP, diabetes, alcohol, infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) at the first admission, acute peripancreatic fluid collection (APFC), and readmission score. The nomogram demonstrated sufficient predictive accuracy, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.739 (95% CI: 0.684-0.794), 0.836 (95% CI: 0.770-0.902), and 0.704 (95% CI: 0.636-0.772) in the training cohort, internal validation cohort, and external validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve shows good consistency between the predicted risk of the model and the actual risk. Conclusions: The nomogram developed in this study shows good predictive value for unplanned readmission in patients with AP and may help identify high-risk populations.
Keywords: acute pancreatitis, nomogram, Predicting, Readmission, Unplanned
Received: 10 Dec 2025; Accepted: 12 Feb 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 Zhu, Fang and Tu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Ping Zhu
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.