ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Oncol.
Sec. Gastrointestinal Cancers: Hepato Pancreatic Biliary Cancers
Volume 15 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fonc.2025.1524765
This article is part of the Research TopicHepatobiliary tumors: Molecular Targets and TherapeuticsView all 6 articles
Development and evaluation of nomogram prediction model for invasion and metastasis of primary liver cancer based on serum CD147 and IL-6
Provisionally accepted
- 1Xi’an People’s Hospital, Xi’an, China
- 2The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
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Objective: To develop a prediction model of invasive metastasis of primary liver cancer based on serum extracellular matrix metalloprotein inducing factor (CD147) and interleukin-6 (IL-6). Methods: Between July 2022 and August 2024, 170 surgically - treated primary hepatocellular carcinoma patients in our hospital were recruited. They were divided into a training group (n = 120) and a validation group (n = 50) at a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were applied in the Training group to analyze invasive metastasis - related factors. Then, a risk - factor - based bar chart prediction model was constructed and internally tested. Its goodness of fit was evaluated, and the model's diagnostic efficacy was analyzed via the ROC curve. Finally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the model's clinical value. Results: In the training group, compared with the non-invasive metastasis group, patients in the invasive metastasis group had a significantly lower percentage of intact envelope and tumor size <5 cm, and significantly higher serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), oncoglobulin (CEA), CD147, and IL-6 levels (All P<0.05). After logistic multifactorial analysis, intact envelope, tumor >5 cm, AFP, CAR, CD147, and IL-6 were independent influencing factors for invasive metastasis of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (All P <0.05). Build a column chart model. The C-index of the Training group and the Validation group were 0.884 (95% CI: 0.738-0.932) and 0.841 (95% CI: 0.741-0.939), respectively, and the calibration curves showed a good correspondence between the predicted probability and the actual probability of the training group and the validation group, without significant deviation. The area under the curve (AUC) of ROC analysis was 0.852 (95% CI: 0.824-0.979) and 0.839 (95% CI: 0.791-0.912), respectively. DCA indicated that the model had clinical application value within a certain range of threshold probabilities. Conclusion: The prediction model based on serum CD147, IL-6 and other risk factors for invasion and metastasis of primary hepatocellular carcinoma has high diagnostic value.
Keywords: CD147, IL-6, primary liver cancer, invasion and metastasis, Nomographic prediction model
Received: 08 Nov 2024; Accepted: 18 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhang, Wu, Wang, Zhang and Yu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Wei Zhang, Xi’an People’s Hospital, Xi’an, China
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