ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Oncol.
Sec. Gastrointestinal Cancers: Colorectal Cancer
Volume 15 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fonc.2025.1559045
This article is part of the Research TopicGut Microbiota and Local Immune System in Colorectal and Liver CancerView all 8 articles
Nomogram Model for Prognosis of Early Colorectal Cancer after Endoscopic Therapy: Integration of Intestinal Microbiota and Clinicopathological Parameters
Provisionally accepted
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang, China
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Objective: To integrate the characteristics of intestinal flora and clinical pathological parameters in patients with early colorectal cancer, and to construct and validate a nomogram model for predicting the prognosis of endoscopic therapy. Methods: The data of 80 patients with early colorectal cancer receiving endoscopic treatment from January 2019 to June 2024 were retrospectively collected. They were randomly divided into a training set (n = 56) and a validation set (n = 24) at a ratio of 7:3. The factors related to prognosis were screened by single-factor and multi-factor regression, so as to construct Nomogram model, calculate C-index, and draw the calibration curve. The clinical application value of the model was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: There was no significant difference in the incidence of poor prognosis, intestinal flora, and clinical pathological parameters between the training set and the validation set (all P>0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that tumor diameter, Shannon-Wiener index, relative abundance of Fusobacterium nucleatum, relative abundance of Bacteroides fragilis, relative abundance of Bifidobacterium, and relative abundance of Lactobacilli were the independent influencing factors for poor prognosis of endoscopic therapy (all P<0.05). The nomogram prediction model was further constructed, and the nomogram model had good calibration and fitting between prediction and reality in the training set and the validation set. ROC curves were shown in the training set and the validation set; AUC of the nomogram model for predicting the prognosis of endoscopic therapy was 0.979(95% CI: 0. 946-1.000) and 0. 821(95% CI: 0.516-1.000). Conclusion: Nomogram model based on intestinal flora and clinical pathological parameters can effectively predict the prognosis of early colorectal cancer patients after endoscopic treatment with good accuracy and reliability, which is expected to provide an important reference for the development of clinical individualized treatment plan and guide the accurate treatment and management of patients.
Keywords: early colorectal cancer, intestinal flora, Clinical pathological parameters, Prognosis of endoscopic therapy, Nomogram model
Received: 11 Jan 2025; Accepted: 08 Sep 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhu, Yang, Meng, Zhang, Chang and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yanli Zhu, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang, China
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