ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Oncol.
Sec. Gastrointestinal Cancers: Hepato Pancreatic Biliary Cancers
Volume 15 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fonc.2025.1574936
Global, regional, and national burden and trends of pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Provisionally accepted
- Fuyang First People's Hospital, Fuyang, China
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Background: To evaluate trends, risk factors, and cross-national disparities in pancreatic cancer (PC) burden over the last 32 years, with projections to 2030.Methods: Incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for PC from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Time trends were measured using the average annual percent change and annual percent change. A comparative risk assessment framework was utilized to estimate the proportion of DALYs attributable to PC risk factors. Furthermore, cross-national inequalities in the burden of PC were quantified, with projections made for changes in PC burden up to 2030 by Bayesian age-period-cohort model.From 1990 to 2021, global incidence, prevalence, and deaths for PC have shown an increasing trend in both numbers and age-standardized rates (ASRs).Regionally, Central Asia has exhibited the highest incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs for PC, with Western Sub-Saharan Africa experiencing the most significant burden escalation. Cross-national inequalities reveals that disparities in PC burden are concentrated in countries with relatively higher socio-demographic index.Furthermore, in 2021, global DALYs for PC were mainly attributed to high fasting glucose(24.31%), smoking(15.81%) and high body mass index(1.98%). It is noteworthy that despite an anticipated annual decrease in ASR for incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs of PC from 2022 to 2030, the case numbers for these indicators are projected to continue increasing.PC presents a major global health burden, especially in high-income regions. Our findings highlight the urgent need for preventive measures targeting modifiable risk factors, more equitable healthcare resource allocation, and policies designed to address emerging disparities and the growing burden in aging populations.
Keywords: Pancreatic cystic neoplasms SDI: Socio-demographic index UI: Uncertainty intervals WHO: World Health Organization Pancreatic cancer, Global burden of disease, risk factor, Cross-national inequalities, prediction
Received: 07 Mar 2025; Accepted: 13 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Yu, Liu, Liu, Niu, Ma, Guan, Wu, Su and Song. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Jiangtao Yu, Fuyang First People's Hospital, Fuyang, China
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