ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Oncol.
Sec. Gastrointestinal Cancers: Hepato Pancreatic Biliary Cancers
This article is part of the Research TopicDiagnosis and Management of Pancreatic CancerView all 12 articles
A novel model for predicting prognosis in pancreatic cancer patients: A retrospective study
Provisionally accepted
Mengyi Jiang
Meixiang Zhou*- Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
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Background Pancreatic cancer is notoriously associated with a poor prognosis and limited survival. We aim to develop a simple and accessible model that can accurately predict the prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients. Methods This study retrospectively analyzed the blood indicators and overall survival of 500 pancreatic cancer patients. The median value was used as the cutoff for univariate and multivariate analyses. To address the limitations of the median value, receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed, and the optimal cutoff value (the highest Youden index) was determined, followed by univariate and multivariate analyses. Prognostic LASSO coefficient screening was performed to establish a pancreatic cancer prognostic prediction model. Risk factor diagram、Kaplan-Meier curve and prognostic calibration curve were plotted to validate the efficacy of the model. Results Multivariate regression analysis showed that neutrophils (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.416, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.037-1.932, P = 0.028), lymphocytes (HR = 0.625, 95% CI = 0.462-0.846, P = 0.002), Carcinoembryonic Antigen (CEA) (HR=1.820, 95% CI=1.315-2.518, P < 0.001), CA125 (HR = 1.392, 95% CI= 1.001-1.936, P = 0.049), TNM stage (I vs. III: HR = 3.052, 95% CI = 1.900-4.905, P < 0.001; I vs. IV: HR=4.815, 95% CI=2.504–9.258, P < 0.001) and Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) (HR=1.748, 95% CI = 1.210–2.525, P = 0.003), Lymphocyte-to-Monocyte Ratio (LMR) (HR=0.597, 95% CI = 0.430–0.829, P = 0.002), Neutrophil-to-Macrophage Ratio (NMR) (HR=2.065, 95% CI=1.331–3.206, P = 0.001), and Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index (SII) (HR = 1.751, 95% CI = 1.244–2.466, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for OS. We have developed a new model incorporating gender, age, treatment, TNM stage, pathological grade, CEA, CA125, and NLR. The model demonstrates good predictive performance, with a C-index of 0.73.
Keywords: Inflammation, overall survival, Pancreatic Cancer, Prognostic prediction, Tumor marker
Received: 04 May 2025; Accepted: 10 Dec 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Jiang and Zhou. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Meixiang Zhou
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