Global spatio-temporal evolution and health inequalities in high BMI-associated kidney cancer burden from 1990 to 2021 and burden prediction to 2040

Yawen Lu¹Jianfeng Ma¹Yang Hu¹Yiming Liu¹Kun Zhang²Xinyu Luo³Yirong Kong⁴Xue Han¹Yongfeng Wang^1*Sheng Li^5*

• ¹The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University, lanzhou, China
• ²School of Stomatology Lanzhou University, lanzhou, China
• ³School of Pharmacy Lanzhou University, lanzhou, China
• ⁴School of Stomatology Lanzhou University, ;anzhou, China
• ⁵First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China

Background The primary cancer of the urinary system, kidney cancer is becoming more common worldwide and is linked to a high body mass index (BMI). Although 20% of kidney cancer cases are caused by obesity, current research data on the global burden of the disease and its trends across population groups are scarce, especially as predicted by 2040. Method We examined age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and sociodemographic index (SDI) using Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) data from 204 nations and territories. joinpoint regression revealed changes in temporal trends and age-period-cohort (APC) modeling separated the effects of age, period, and cohort. Finally, we project the disease burden to 2040. Result From 1990 to 2021, high BMI-related kidney cancer deaths increased by 2.67-fold, and DALYs rose by 66.1%. In 2021, the ASMR for high BMI-associated kidney cancer was 0.38 (95% per 10 0,000 UI: 0.12-0.52) and the ASDR was 8.99 per 100,000 (95% UI: 3.68-14.51). Significant heterogeneity was observed in gender and age, with a significantly higher male burden concentrated in the 55-79 year group. The main burden is concentrated in the high SDI region, including South Latin America, North America, Europe and North Asia. Over 30 years, the burden of high BMI-associated kidney cancer gradually increased, especially in low SDI areas, while high SDI areas showed a decreasing trend after 2016. The global disease burden of high BMI-associated kidney cancer burden grew fastest between 2000 and 2010, began to decline in 2016, and will rebound in 2030. Conclusion The global burden of high BMI-associated kidney cancer burden has surged since 1990. Although it showed a downward trend in 2016, it is expected to rebound by 2030. Significant differences exist across regions, genders, and age groups. Policymakers must prioritize obesity prevention, adopt gender-specific strategies, enhance early detection in older populations, and address issues of socioeconomic inequality and unequal distribution of healthcare resources to tackle this public health challenge.