ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Oncol.
Sec. Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 15 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fonc.2025.1632843
A comparison of trends in the incidence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis-related liver cancer in BRICS countries from 1990 to 2021 , alongside projections for the next 15 years
Provisionally accepted
- The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, China
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Despite the ongoing rise in the global burden of non-alcoholic steatohep atitis-related liver cancer(NALC), systematic analyses and long-term trend projections o f the disease's burden in the BRICS countries remain relatively scarce.The objective of this study was to systematically assess the incidence dyna mics of NALC in the BRICS countries during the period from 1990 to 2021, to reve al its epidemiological characteristics, to assess the potential public health challenges, a nd to forecast the development trends over the next 15 years.The present study collated and systematised the incidence data of NALC in BRICS countries from 1990 to 2021, drawing upon the global burden of disease data base(2021). The indicators that were analysed included the incidence rate, the age-stan dardised incidence rate, the annual percentage change and the average annual percenta ge change. The analysis incorporated the utilisation of two distinct models: the Joinpoi nt regression model and the age-period-cohort model. Additionally, the autoregre ssive integrated moving average model was implemented to offering insights into the potential future risk of the disease.From 1990 to 2021, the incidence of NALC in the BRICS countries demonst rated a marked increase. The incidence rate in China exhibited an increase from 0.34 (95%uncertainty interval(UI): 0.28-0.42) to 0.79 (95% UI: 0.61-1.01).Brazil demonstrate d a rise from 0.07 (95% UI: 0.06-0.08) to 0.17 (95% UI: 0.15 -0.20).Russian Federati on demonstrated a rise from 0.14 (95% UI: 0.12-0.16) to 0.39 (95% UI: 0.33-0.45).In dia demonstrated a rise from 0.13 (95% UI: 0.10-0.16) to 0.32 (95% UI: 0.26-0.38).South Africa demonstrated a rise from 0.29 (95% UI: 0.18-0.47) to 0.74 (95% UI: 0.5 9-0.89).The present study reveals a sustained upward trend in NALC incidence i n the BRICS countries during 1990-2021, and significant differences in the pace and drivers of growth across countries.The heterogeneity reflected by the Joinpoint and AP C models reveals gaps in the burden of metabolic diseases, public health response, an d policy implementation across countries. In order to address this challenge, priority s hould be given to the promotion of metabolic disease-related early screening, health b ehaviour interventions, and systematic management.
Keywords: BRICS countries, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis-associated hepatocellular carci noma, Incidence, prediction, trend
Received: 23 May 2025; Accepted: 21 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Chen, Huang, Wu, Hu, Li, Du and Fang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Taiyong Fang, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, China
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