ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Oncol.
Sec. Gynecological Oncology
Volume 15 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fonc.2025.1652347
This article is part of the Research TopicCutting-Edge Strategies in Screening, Prevention, and Treatment in Gynaecologic OncologyView all 8 articles
Long-term trends and projections of ovarian cancer burden in China (1990 to 2040): An age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021 data
Provisionally accepted
Miaoling Huang1
Meimei Guan1Qunxian Rao1Qing Chen1Jiating Wang2
Zhongyi Fan3
Jianpeng Xiao2*Changhao Liu1*- 1Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Guangzhou, China
- 2Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, China
- 3Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
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The growing burden of ovarian cancer is attracting widespread attention; the impact factors and the evolution trend of ovarian cancer burden need to be further studied.Ovarian cancer disease burden data for Chinese women were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study. We performed Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis to evaluate evolution trends across age, period, and cohort dimensions and identify contributing factors. Using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model, we projected incidence and mortality trends through 2040.In 2021, China recorded approximately 41,240 new ovarian cancer cases and 25,140 related deaths. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years fluctuated but increased steadily after 2015, with annual percentage changes of 1.6% (95%CI: 1.4%, 1.8%), 1.6% (95%CI: 1.4%, 1.9%), and 1.5% (95%CI: 1.3%, 1.6%), respectively. The APC model revealed a significant age effect with peak incidence occurring at 65-69 years; a period effect showing incidence and mortality rates resurged after 2015; and the cohort effects demonstrating bimodal incidence peaks in the birth cohorts of 1910-1914 and 1935-1939. Specifically, a 1% increase in the obesity rate was associated with a 3.06 (95%CI: 0.84, 5.28; p = 0.007) per 100,000 rise in ovarian cancer incidence. BAPC projections suggest that the ASRs of incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in China will continue rising through 2040, possibly exceeding global trends.The burden of ovarian cancer in China remains significant; the increasing obesity rate in women would be a driver. The ovarian cancer burden has resurged in China since 2015, and it is projected to continue increasing by 2040.
Keywords: ovarian cancer, Age-Period-Cohort analysis, disease burden, Trend projection, Incidence, death, Risk facors, Disability-adjusted life years (DALY)
Received: 23 Jun 2025; Accepted: 25 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Huang, Guan, Rao, Chen, Wang, Fan, Xiao and Liu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Jianpeng Xiao, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, China
Changhao Liu, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Guangzhou, China
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