ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Oncol.
Sec. Skin Cancer
Survival Nomogram for Melanoma with Bone Metastasis Based on the SEER Database and an External Validation Cohort
Provisionally accepted
- 1Fujian Provincial Cancer Hospital, Fuzhou, China
- 2Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
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Background: We aimed to develop and validate a comprehensive prognostic model for melanoma bone metastasis. Methods: Data on melanoma bone metastasis patients were obtained from the SEER database and Fujian Cancer Hospital. Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify independent prognostic factors and to establish a Nomogram to predict the overall survival rate of patients. Results: We generated a Nomogram chart incorporating factors such as Age, Site, AJCC T stage, AJCC N stage, Surg Prim, Systemic and Sur Seq, Surg or Rad Seq, DX Brain, DX Liver, DX Distant LN, Tumor number, First malignant primary, Marital status, and Urban. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS rate AUCs for the training cohort were 0.715, 0.711, and 0.714, respectively, with a c-index of 0.656; the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS rate AUCs for the internal validation cohort were 0.695, 0.725, and 0.719, respectively, with a c-index of 0.650; the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS rate AUCs for the external validation cohort were 0.714, 0.791, and 0.842, respectively, with a c-index of 0.710. Calibration curves showed the consistency between the Nomogram's observed and predicted prognostic outcomes. Conclusion: Our model can be used to predict the prognosis of melanoma bone metastasis.
Keywords: Melanoma, bone metastasis, SEER, prognosis, nomogram
Received: 05 Aug 2025; Accepted: 27 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Lu, Chen, Zheng, Li, Wu, Chen and Lin. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Yu Chen, chenyu1980@fjmu.edu.cn
Jing Lin, 423559148@qq.com
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