ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Oncol.
Sec. Skin Cancer
Global Basal Cell Carcinoma in 55+ Population: 1990– 2021 Burden、Risk-Factor Trends and 2050 Forecast
Provisionally accepted
Yan-Xia Cai1*
Minglei Rong2- 1皮肤科, Department of General Thoracic Surgery, Sanya Central Hospital (Third People's Hospital of Hainan Province), Sanya, China
- 2Department of General Thoracic Surgery, Sanya Central Hospital (Third People's Hospital of Hainan Province), Sanya, China
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Objective: This study map the 1990–2021 basal-cell carcinoma burden in people ≥55 years worldwide, pinpoint key risk drivers, and offer concise intervention guidance for elder-focused prevention. Methods: We focused on adults aged ≥55 years because this group shows the highest basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) frequency and matches the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) age strata. Incidence and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) counts for 1990–2021 were downloaded from the Global Health Data Exchange. After direct age-standardisation, we plotted global, regional and national rates, generated world maps, computed annual percent change (APC) and contrasted 1990 versus 2021 distributions—all with R 4.2.1. A Bayesian hierarchical model then projected the 2050 burden. Results:1990-2021,Among adults ≥55 years, global basal-cell carcinoma incidence rose and then plateaued, while DALYs climbed before edging downward. The steepest gains in both age-standardized incidence and DALY rates occurred in high-income North America. Men consistently outpaced women across all metrics. The USA, Brazil and China recorded the largest absolute caseloads, yet the USA always posted the highest incidence rate and Nepal the lowest. Overall, the BCC burden has expanded over the past three decades. Conclusion: Over the last three decades, both new cases and the overall toll of basal-cell carcinoma among older adults have risen worldwide, fueled by expanding and aging populations, greater ultraviolet exposure, and better case detection. Looking forward, vigorous sun-protection education and unified UV-shielding measures are essential to curb incidence and ease the growing burden.
Keywords: basal cell carcinoma, Burden, Risk factors, forecast, Global burden of disease
Received: 09 Sep 2025; Accepted: 17 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Cai and Rong. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yan-Xia Cai, 15816098248@163.com
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