ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Oral Health
Sec. Oral Epidemiology
The global, regional, and national patterns of change in the burden of edentulism, 1990-2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021 and forecast to 2041
Provisionally accepted
- Fuzhou University Affiliated Provincial Hospital, Fuzhou, China
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Background: Edentulism is a critical global health issue. It affects physical health and quality of life, and the associated healthcare costs pose a burden on individuals and society. Therefore, we analyzed the global burden of edentulism from 1990 to 2021 and projected trends from 2021 to 2041. Methods: This study used publicly available data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). The paper reports prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of edentulism per 100,000 population (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) in 1990 versus 2021, across all age groups (0–95+ years). It details changing trends from 1990 to 2021 by gender, age, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were assessed using joinpoint regression. Nordpred and BAPC models projected incidence from 2021 to 2041. Results: Globally, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 328.85 (95% UI: 268.72–396.35) per 100,000 in 1990 to 305.04 (95% UI: 261.19–356.58) in 2021, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of –0.23% (95% CI: –0.33% to –0.14%), indicating a long-term decline. However, joinpoint regression revealed a recent upward trend from 2015 to 2021. The age group with the highest incidence increased by 5 years; the 75–79 group had the highest rate in 2021. The ASIR for males (284.91, 95% UI: 284.74–285.07) was lower than for females (325.06, 95% UI: 324.90–325.23) in 2021. Middle-range SDI regions tend to have high ASIR. When SDI is between 0.5 and 0.7, ASIR peaks. Incidence increased from 2015 to 2021 in both sexes. Nordpred and BAPC models predict rising incidence and case numbers from 2021 to 2041. Conclusions: Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute global burden of edentulism continues to rise due to population growth and aging, disproportionately affecting low-middle SDI regions, women, and older adults (≥75 years). Without intervention, incidence and burden will escalate.
Keywords: Edentulism, disease burden, oral disease, prediction, trend
Received: 13 Aug 2025; Accepted: 12 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhong, Huang, Zheng and Wu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Zhiyuan Wu, wzyacademic@163.com
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