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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Pharmacol.

Sec. Pharmacoepidemiology

Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fphar.2025.1673919

Prediction of long-term adherence to Direct Oral Anti-Coagulants in patients with Atrial Fibrillation using first-order Markov models

Provisionally accepted
Elias  Edward TannousElias Edward Tannous1,2*shlomo  Selitzkyshlomo Selitzky2shlomo  Vinkershlomo Vinker3Nicola  ToukanNicola Toukan4David  StepenskyDavid Stepensky1Eyal  SchwarzbergEyal Schwarzberg1
  • 1Department of Clinical Biochemistry and Pharmacology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheva, Israel
  • 2Pharmacy Services, Hillel Yaffe Medical Center, Hadera, Israel
  • 3Leumit Health Care Services, Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel
  • 4Department of Cardiology, Hillel Yaffe Medical Center, Hadera, Israel

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

Direct Oral Anti-Coagulants (DOACs) are the primary treatment for the long-term prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. Strict adherence to DOAC therapy is crucial and must be maintained over the long term. Therefore, predicting long-term adherence is valuable for identifying patients at risk of non-adherence. We developed a novel method for predicting long-term adherence using first-order Markov models to assess adherence in new DOAC users during years 2-5. The prediction utilized age, CHA2DS2-VASc score, and first-year adherence data as predictors. Adherence was measured by calculating the proportion of days covered within consecutive 90-day windows, which were then stratified into deciles. We subsequently calculated the probability of a patient being in a specific adherence decile. The developed model demonstrated good calibration. We discovered that missing even one day of treatment per month in the first year was predictive of a lower likelihood of achieving the highest adherence decile in years 2-5. Additionally, we noted a non-linear relationship between age and adherence; adherence increased linearly with age but plateaued around age 75. This innovative approach to modelling and predicting adherence to DOACs for long-term therapy can help identify patients at risk of low adherence and may be applicable to other chronic medications.

Keywords: Markov, Direct oral anti-coagulants, adherence, prediction, AtrialFibrillation

Received: 26 Jul 2025; Accepted: 01 Oct 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 Tannous, Selitzky, Vinker, Toukan, Stepensky and Schwarzberg. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Elias Edward Tannous, tanus@bgu.ac.il

Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.