ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Polit. Sci.
Sec. International Studies
Turkey as a middle power in Central Asia: regional cooperation amid geopolitical competition with Russia, China, and the United States
1. Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
2. Suleimenov Institute of Oriental Studies, Almaty, Kazakhstan
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Abstract
Amid the transformation of the global order and intensified Eurasian competition, Turkey has expanded its engagement with Central Asia through connectivity diplomacy, identity-based multilateralism, and selective security and economic cooperation. This article argues that Turkey's regional strategy is best understood as middle power diplomacy driven by strategic autonomy: Ankara does not attempt to displace Russia or China, but instead builds influence through institutional entrepreneurship under the "Turkic World" agenda, niche geo-economic instruments, and reputational resources generated by cultural diplomacy. We show, first, that Central Asia functions for Turkey as a low-to-moderate cost arena to operationalize strategic autonomy while avoiding direct confrontation with dominant regional actors. Second, we demonstrate that Turkey's strongest leverage is not material scale but the combination of connectivity initiatives that align with regional diversification interests, soft-power infrastructure (education, cultural production, humanitarian visibility), and targeted defence-industrial cooperation that remains complementary to the existing security hierarchy. Third, we link these external practices to domestic debates in Turkey over pan-Turkic identity narratives, the limits of socio-political Islam in external outreach, and Ankara's contested relationship with Europe and the wider West. Empirically, the article triangulates institutional and documentary analysis with an original cross-sectional perception survey (2023– 2024), interpreted as exploratory evidence. The findings support the claim that Turkey's influence in Central Asia is conditional and layered: it grows where Ankara can translate identity and connectivity into institutional routines and business networks, but it remains constrained by Russia's entrenched security role, China's geo-economic scale, and uneven regional receptivity.
Summary
Keywords
«softpower», Central Asia, China, Geopolitical competition, Middle power diplomacy, Russia, The United States, Turkey
Received
11 September 2025
Accepted
10 February 2026
Copyright
© 2026 Yermekbayev and Yekibassova. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*Correspondence: Zhadyra Yekibassova
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