PERSPECTIVE article
Front. Astron. Space Sci.
Sec. Space Physics
This article is part of the Research TopicLarge Long-Lived Vertical Wind Oscillations in the Mesosphere and Thermosphere RegionsView all 3 articles
Rogue Vertical Drafts in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere: Evidence and Implications
Provisionally accepted
- 1Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LG), Rostock, Germany
- 2The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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Observational evidence of extreme vertical velocities (|w| ≥12.5 m/s and at times greater than 50 m/s) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), has emerged in recent years. We refer to these events as Rogue Vertical Drafts (RVDs). They exceed five standard deviations of observed vertical velocities and appear as paired updraft–downdraft structures in varicose mode. Four-dimensional observations reveal that RVDs are intermittent, recurrent, and unpredictable. On average, they are expected to occur every ∼12 days during summer over Northern Norway, assuming a 1000 s interval. Different instruments may capture only portions of these events—for example, only upward or downward drafts when restricted to a single altitude range. Despite their rarity, their magnitudes and frequency suggest potential impacts on dust-sized matter escaping from planets, natural and anthropogenic space material, and MLT climate and processes. We propose that RVDs are a fundamental yet under-recognized feature of the MLT, underscoring the need for global observations to assess their prevalence and significance.
Keywords: Extreme vertical velocities, Rogue vertical drafts, Climate change monitoring, MLT observing techniques, space debris, Noctilucent clouds, planetary life transfer
Received: 30 Sep 2025; Accepted: 12 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Chau, Berera and Huyghebaert. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Jorge Luis Chau, chau@iap-kborn.de
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