ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Clin. Diabetes Healthc.
Sec. Diabetes Clinical Epidemiology
Volume 6 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fcdhc.2025.1606330
This article is part of the Research Topic(Un)healthy lifestyles, Aging, and Type 2 DiabetesView all 11 articles
Global, regional and national burden of diabetes mellitus type 2 attributable to low physical activity from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050: a finding from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Provisionally accepted
- 1Peking Union Medical College Hospital (CAMS), Beijing, China
- 2Department of Geriatrics, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
Select one of your emails
You have multiple emails registered with Frontiers:
Notify me on publication
Please enter your email address:
If you already have an account, please login
You don't have a Frontiers account ? You can register here
Background: This study aims to assess the global burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) attributable to low physical activity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast of its global burden by 2050 using GBD 2021 data.Method: This study uses data from the GBD 2021 to examine the global burden of T2DM attributable to low physical activity, focusing on deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and Years of Life Lost (YLLs). Descriptive analysis was performed across gender, age, region, and country for 1990 and 2021, using age-standardized rates. Trend analysis assessed the average changes in these rates from 1990 to 2021 by calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Projections for future burden were made using the exponential smoothing (ES) model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.In 2021, T2DM attributed to low physical activity caused 149,214 deaths and 5,523,050 DALYs, with significant increases since 1990. Both age-standardized mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) rose, especially among females. The highest burden occurred in the 95+ and 70-74 age groups. High-SDI regions had the highest rates, with rapid increases in the high-middle SDI regions.Countries like the UAE, Montenegro, and Hungary showed the highest rates.Projections from 2022 to 2050 indicate a steady rise in deaths and DALYs, with a peak in 2050, though the rate of increase is slower according to the exponential smoothing model.The burden of T2DM attributable to low physical activity has steadily increased, with concerning future trends.
Keywords: Global burden of disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, low physical activity, Epidemiological trends, projections
Received: 17 Apr 2025; Accepted: 17 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhang, Qu and Kang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Lin Kang, Department of Geriatrics, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.