ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Ecol. Evol.
Sec. Conservation and Restoration Ecology
This article is part of the Research TopicImpacts and Adaptations in Montane Ecosystems Facing Climate ChangeView all 6 articles
Multi-scenario land use simulation and carbon storage prediction analysis in the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park
Provisionally accepted
Zongzhu Chen1,2
Xiaorong Jiang3*Xiaoyan Pan1,2Yiqing Chen1,2Jinrui Lei1,2Tingtian Wu1,2Xiaohua Chen1,2Yuanling Li1,2
Tiezhu Shi4*- 1Hainan Academy of Forestry, Haikou, Hainan Province, China
- 2Key Laboratory of Tropical Forestry Resources Monitoring and Application of Hainan Province, Haikou, China
- 3Hubei University of Arts and Science, Xiangyang, China
- 4School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China
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Protected areas like national parks play a pivotal role in carbon sequestration, a function essential for achieving global climate mitigation goals as climate change accelerates. However, a significant challenge lies in reconciling conservation mandates with pressures for economic growth within these regions. The present study addresses this issue by investigating China's Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park (HNTRNP). By integrating 10 natural and socioeconomic variables, we applied the PLUS-InVEST model to quantify historical carbon stock dynamics from 1980 to 2020 and to project future storage capacities for 2035 under various development pathways. Our results demonstrate that: (1) In the last forty years, there has been a notable rise in forest area alongside a reduction in grassland and arable land. This shift has led to a pattern of carbon storage characterized by an initial decline of 0.65 Tg between 1980 and 2010, succeeded by a swift expansion during the period 2010– 2020; (2) he geographic arrangement of carbon stocks has been largely stable, except for marked variations observed in the eastern high-altitude regions, namely Bawangling, Yinggeling, Wuzhishan, and Diaoluoshan; (3) Ecological protection policies effectively curb built land expansion and enhance carbon sequestration. By 2035, carbon storage under the ecological protection (EP) scenario is projected to reach 110.85 Tg, 1.28 Tg (1.17%) higher than the natural development (ND) scenario and 1.64 Tg (1.50%) higher than the tourism development (TD) scenario. Ultimately, this study informs future land management and conservation efforts within HNTRNP by demonstrating that sustainable socioeconomic development must be synthesized with robust ecological protection.
Keywords: land use change, Carbon Storage, PLUS-InVEST model, Multi-scenario, HainanTropical Rainforest National Park (HNTRNP)
Received: 04 Dec 2024; Accepted: 24 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Chen, Jiang, Pan, Chen, Lei, Wu, Chen, Li and Shi. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Xiaorong Jiang, jiangxr@hbuas.edu.cn
Tiezhu Shi, tiezhushi@szu.edu.cn
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