Climate-Driven Redistribution of Essential Oil Chemotypes in Camphora officinarum: MaxEnt-Based Habitat Projections and Conservation Priorities for Southern China (2021–2080)

Chen Hou¹Yingchao Jiang²Boxiang He¹Jielian Chen¹Minghuai Wang¹Yonglin Zhong¹Bing Li¹Huiming Lian¹Yongquan Li²Qian Zhang^1*

• ¹Guangdong Academy of Forestry, Guangzhou, China
• ²Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou, China

Camphora officinarum Nees, is a significant economic tree indigenous to southern China. Despites of previous efforts, ecological niches of C. officinarum remain unclear with few sampling and neglectance of chemotypes. In the present study, which exhibits intraspecific variation in essential oil chemistry, is endangered due to over-exploitation and the effects of global climate change. new efforts have been made to investigate the integrated C. officinarum and its four chemotypes based on 546 occurances using utilizing MaxEnt model from 2021 to 2080., this study projected the potential geographic distribution of four essential oil chemotypes of 546 individuals 0000identified the prevailing environmental determinants, and modeled suitable habitats under extant and projected climatic conditions. With escalating temperatures and precipitation, The findings indicate that highly suitable regions for the integrated C. officinarum are projected to diminish between 2021 and 2080, resulting in habitat fragmentation. The climatic variables influencing this are the annual mean precipitation (bio12), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), the mean precipitation during the warmest month (bio18), and the annual mean temperature (bio1). Furthermore, the regions highly suitable for each chemotype of C. officinarum are anticipated to undergo shifts and diversification from 2021 to 2080, with the primary factors driving these changes being the maximum precipitation in the driest month (bio14) and elevation. The study proposes conservation strategies at the end, furnishing a foundation for conservation and domestication of C. officinarum in South China. the optimal habitat for integrated camphor trees is projected to contract by 12.88% from 2021 to 2080, resulting in habitat fragmentation. Dominant factors influencing the habitat from 2021 to 2040 include the coldest month temperature (bio6), annual mean temperature (bio1), and warmest month temperature (bio18), whereas from 2041 to 2080, the annual mean precipitation (bio12) becomes the primary influence. The precipitation during the driest month (bio14) consistently plays a crucial role in shaping the geographic distribution of the four chemotypes. The ecological niche geographic patterns of these chemotypes exhibit significant variation between 2021 and 2080. Drawing from these insights,