Geography of Opportunity: A Multilevel Analysis of Regional and School-Level Inequities in Somaliland's Educational Outcomes

Mukhtaar Axmed Cumar¹Mustafe Khadar Abdi¹Abdisalam Hassan Hassan Muse¹Tawakal Abdi Ali¹Bahar Adam Abdullahi²Jibril Abdikadir Ali^1*

• ¹Amoud University, Borama, Somalia
• ²Haramaya University, College of Education and Bahavioral Science, Haramaya, Ethiopia

This study demonstrates the application of multilevel modeling, a robust psychometric method, to a national standardized testing dataset to diagnose systemic inequities in educational outcomes. In post-conflict settings like Somaliland, understanding the sources of variance in student achievement is critical for developing targeted, evidence-based policies. This research utilizes a comprehensive administrative dataset from the Somaliland National Examination and Certification Board, comprising 505,398 subject-level grade records from 186 secondary schools (2020–2023). We employed a series of linear mixed-effects models to partition the variance in student grade points, treating students (Level 1) as nested within schools (Level 2). This applied measurement approach moves beyond simply reporting scores to analyze the structural properties of the assessment results. A key psychometric finding was the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC), which revealed that 23.4% of the total variance in student grade points is attributable to the school level, quantifying a substantial "school effect." The analysis also identified significant performance disparities across subjects, with Mathematics and Chemistry showing the lowest outcomes. While a fixed-effects model showed no overall performance difference by sex, a random slope model—which provided the best statistical fit—demonstrated that the relationship between sex and achievement varies significantly across schools. This finding highlights how the validity of interpretations about demographic performance can be context-dependent. By applying multilevel modeling to a large-scale assessment dataset, this study provides a powerful, evidence-based tool for policymakers to identify and address place-based educational disparities, directly informing policies aimed at achieving Sustainable Development Goal 4 (Quality Education).