ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Energy Res.
Sec. Smart Grids
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fenrg.2025.1618421
Research on Probabilistic Inference Methods for Power Grid Icing Risk Assessment: A Systematic Analysis Incorporating Ultra-High Voltage Line Ratios
Provisionally accepted
- State Grid UHV Transmission Co. of SEPC, Taiyuan, China
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Power grid icing is a severe natural hazard that threatens the safe and stable operation of power systems. With the expansion of ultra-high voltage (UHV) power grids, systematic assessment of icing disaster risks has become increasingly crucial. This paper proposes a probabilistic inference approach for power grid icing risk assessment, which employs a Poisson process model to characterize the nonlinear relationship between line failure probability and ice thickness, combined with Monte Carlo simulation techniques to evaluate overall system risk. Research findings indicate that critical ice thickness and failure sensitivity coefficients significantly impact the grid's disaster resistance capability, particularly when the proportion of high-load UHV lines increases, leading to nonlinear growth in system risk. Quantitative analysis reveals that when UHV lines account for 50% of the system, the maximum risk can exceed 15 times that of conventional line scenarios. The research outcomes provide theoretical foundations for power grid icing disaster prevention and mitigation, offering important guidance for optimizing grid planning and enhancing system resilience.
Keywords: Power Grid Icing, Probabilistic inference, Risk Assessment, Monte Carlo simulation, Ultra-high voltage lines, System Vulnerability en-hancing requiring precipitation rates and specific correction limiting their application ap-plication for large-scale
Received: 26 Apr 2025; Accepted: 07 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Liu, He, Lu, Li, Lu and Jia. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Ziqiang Lu, State Grid UHV Transmission Co. of SEPC, Taiyuan, China
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