ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Energy Res.
Sec. Nuclear Energy
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fenrg.2025.1618696
Modeling the Transition from Coal to SMRs in Colombia: Emissions Avoidance under Deterministic and Probabilistic Frameworks
Provisionally accepted
- Pontifical Javeriana University, Bogotá, Colombia
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The coal-to-nuclear strategy offers a viable pathway to decarbonize Colombia's electricity system while enhancing its reliability. This study quantifies the potential reduction in CO₂eq emissions from replacing coal-fired power plants with small modular reactors (SMRs) between 2035 and 2052. Two complementary approaches are implemented: a deterministic model, based on installed capacities, retirement schedules, and fixed emission parameters; and a stochastic model, which applies Monte Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertainty in emission factors and reactor performance.The deterministic model estimates cumulative avoided emissions of 82.62 MtCO₂eq, while the probabilistic model yields a median of 76.04 MtCO₂eq, with a standard deviation of 6.58 MtCO₂eq. These findings illustrate the strategy's robustness across varying technical assumptions and confirm that coal-to-nuclear conversion can significantly reduce emissions in line with Colombia's climate targets. In addition, the study evaluates the geographic suitability of existing coal plant sites for SMR deployment, highlights the importance of nuclear regulatory frameworks, and discusses fuel cycle innovations that may reduce long-term waste. Although the analysis is based on idealized deployment conditions, it offers a valuable reference for planning technically and environmentally sound coal-to-nuclear transitions in emerging economies.
Keywords: energy system decarbonization, Small Modular Reactors, Coal-to-nuclear transition, energy transition, Energy Policy
Received: 26 Apr 2025; Accepted: 11 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Prieto Valderrama and Patiño. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Camilo Prieto Valderrama, Pontifical Javeriana University, Bogotá, Colombia
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