Optimal scheduling of a new power system considering extreme weather disturbances

Tiechen Li¹Yuanyuan Tian¹Zhao Chen¹Han Zeng²Fangming Deng^2*

• ¹State Grid Economic and Technical Research Institute Co., Changping, China, Changping, China, China
• ²East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang, China

Under the background that extreme weather disturbances frequently threaten the safe and stable operation of new power systems, the uncertainty of source-load forecasting has become a key bottleneck affecting the dispatching effect. Although the existing research is devoted to improving the forecasting algorithm to reduce the forecasting error, it generally ignores the statistical characteristics of forecasting error, especially the extreme weather-induced error, which leads to the disconnection between the dispatching decision-making model and the actual distribution of forecasting error, which makes it difficult to effectively deal with extreme disturbances and damages the accuracy and resilience of system scheduling. At the same time, the new power system presents remarkable multi-energy complementary characteristics, and the complex coupling energy composition and conversion relationship within it is an important factor that can not be ignored to realize dispatching optimization. Aiming at the above problems, this paper proposes a new optimal dispatching strategy of power system considering extreme weather disturbance. Firstly, the uncertainty of SLP is quantified by fitting the prediction error distribution and estimating the prediction interval. Secondly, the unit risk economic benefit ratio is introduced to construct a multi-objective and multi energy complementary optimization scheduling model that considers both economy and stability. Finally, the tabu search algorithm is used to improve the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and achieve optimal scheduling of new power system. The experimental results show that compared with traditional methods, the proposed wind solar load prediction interval estimation reduces the Coverage Width Index (CWC) by an average of 8.64% to 13.33%; The new optimal dispatching scheme of power system considering extreme weather disturbance improves the economic benefit by 2.38% and reduces the operation risk index by 2.22%.