ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Pediatr.
Sec. General Pediatrics and Pediatric Emergency Care
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fped.2025.1571203
Nomogram for Spontaneous Reduction in Pediatric Intussusception: A retrospective study
Provisionally accepted
Guangyu Wang1
Zhongce Li2Guangqi Duan1Bangzhi Sui1Zhiyuan Jin1Zhenjie Chu1Rui Tang1Xiao Wang1Honglong Ma1
Shiqin Qi2*
Jie Liu1*- 1First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China
- 2Anhui Provincial Children’s Hospital, Hefei, Anhui Province, China
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Objective: This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the probability of spontaneous reduction of intussusception (SROI) in pediatric patients.: The authors retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of children with intussusception admitted to two hospitals in China from May 2023 to December 2024. The eligible patients were randomly divided into the training and validation set in a ratio of 7:3. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable logistic regression analysis were employed to identify essential variables for the development of the nomogram. The nomogram's performance was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: A total of 290 cases were included in the study, among which 114 patients underwent spontaneous reduction. The study identified six predictors of SROI: age, presence of bloody stool (bleed), comorbidities, mode of birth (MOB), intussusception region (right, left and mid-abdomen), and length. The results demonstrate that older age and short -segment intussusception are significantly associated with an enhanced possibility of SROI. The nomogram demonstrated high discriminatory power with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.922 in the training cohort and 0.932 in the validation cohort. Calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes. DCA indicated that the nomogram provided substantial net benefits for clinical application. Conclusion: The developed nomogram is a reliable and precise tool for predicting the likelihood of SROI in pediatric patients. It can assist clinicians in making treatment decisions, potentially reducing unnecessary invasive interventions and optimizing healthcare resource utilization.
Keywords: Intussusception, Spontaneous reduction, nomogram, predictive model, Children
Received: 05 Feb 2025; Accepted: 20 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Wang, Li, Duan, Sui, Jin, Chu, Tang, Wang, Ma, Qi and Liu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Shiqin Qi, Anhui Provincial Children’s Hospital, Hefei, 230000, Anhui Province, China
Jie Liu, First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.