ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Pediatr.
Sec. Pediatric Pulmonology
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fped.2025.1571479
Nomogram for Prediction of Plastic Bronchitis in Chinese Children with Pneumonia
Provisionally accepted
- Dongyang People’s Hospital, Dongyang, China
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Background:This study investigated risk factors for plastic bronchitis(PB) in children with pneumonia and created a nomogram for early detection.We retrospectively analyzed data from 487 children with pneumonia who underwent bronchoscopic alveolar lavage between 2018 and 2024. Children were divided into a PB group (n = 65) and a No-PB group (n = 422). Key indicators were identified using regression analysis, and a nomogram prediction model was developed. Its effectiveness was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis(DCA), and the bootstrap (BS) method.Results: A total of 65 patients (13.3%) out of 487 had PB. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that mycoplasma infection, atelectasis, high fever peak, high neutrophil levels and elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels were risk factors for PB development. Additionally, the BS-ROC curve of the developed nomogram had an area under the curve value of 0.857 (95% confidence interval: 0.808-0.905). The calibration curve analysis revealed a strong agreement between the actual and predicted probabilities of PB development, and DCA highlighted the clinical relevance of the nomogram.A nomogram for MP infection, fever peak, LDH, maximum neutrophils percentage (N%max), and atelectasis was established to predict the risk of PB in children with pneumonia.The nomogram effectively identifies PB early, and bronchoscopy is advised for high-risk children.However, the nomogram needs external validation before practical use.
Keywords: 肺炎, 塑料支气管炎, 风险因素, 命名图, 胃st症, 支原体
Received: 05 Feb 2025; Accepted: 30 Apr 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Fang and Lu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Xiaoqian Fang, Dongyang People’s Hospital, Dongyang, China
Hemin Lu, Dongyang People’s Hospital, Dongyang, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.