Benefit-risk Assessment of the use of toxic botanical drugs in superiority field: A case study on Aconitum carmichaeli Debx

Xiaomeng Zhang^1*Bing Zhang¹Jintao Lyv²Zhijian Lin¹Xinlong Liu¹

• ¹Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China
• ²Ningbo College of Health Sciences, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, China

Objective: To establish a benefit-risk assessment (BRA) model utilizing multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for evaluating the benefit-risk relationship of decoctions containing Aconitum carmichaeli Debx. (Fuzi) in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), laying the foundation for clinical decision-making on toxic botanical drugs. Methods:The BRA framework was accessed via an intergrated approach combining Delphi survey, meta-analysis, MCDA modeling, and Bayesian Monte Carlo simulations. And also, the variations in benefits and risks when using Fuzi under different conditions were simulated. The modeling of MCDA-BRA was employed various software tools, including Microsoft Office Excel 2016, Matlab R2014b, RevMan 5.4, Hiview 3, and Crystal Ball 11.1.2.4. Results: Based on the Delphi survey results involving 22 experts, a MCDA model for the BRA assessment of Fuzi in RA treatment was constructed. The benefit criteria wighted at 49%, and encompassed secondary criteria such as the number of joints with pressure pain, the number of swollen joints, the duration of morning stiffness, and laboratory test markers. While risk criteria constituted 51% and included factors such as the incidence rate of adverse drug reactions/events (ADRs/ADEs) and damage to various bodily systems. After including 40 random clinical trials (RCTs) that used Fuzi as a primary therapeutic agent in traditional Chinese medicines (TCM) decoction for RA, a meta-analysis was conducted. Combination of the meta-analysis results and BRA model, the BRA value of Fuzi in the treatment of RA was ranging from 5 to 54, which means the benefit is superior to the risk of using Fuzi for RA. RA patients with the pattern of cold and heat complex, 3-15g dosage, lasting 2-3 months treatment course, and using decoction only, the risks borne by the patients were lower. Sensitivity analysis indicated stability of the evaluation outcomes. Conclusion: The study, utilizing Fuzi in the treatment of RA as an example, effectively explored the methodology of BRA for toxic botanical drugs. It simulated medication regimens that were more favorable to patients and established a solid foundation for risk management and the rational use of toxic TCM in clinical practice. However, interpretation of the findings should account for limitations in the underlying data.