Decoding Short-Term Fertility Intentions: Exploring the Nexus of Gender Equality and Societal Factors in a Comparative EU Gender Regimes Analysis

Alba-María Aragón-Morales^*Antonia-María Ruiz-Jiménez

• Pablo de Olavide University, Seville, Spain

Low fertility rates in the European Union (EU) have prompted extensive research into the gap between desired and intended fertility, often linked to persistent gender inequality. This study examines short-term fertility intentions among partnered individuals in three EU countries—Finland, Germany, and Spain—representing distinct gender regimes: Scandinavian, Continental, and Mediterranean. Using data from the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) and the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE), we apply Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to analyze the interplay of individual, partner, and contextual factors, such as employment, caregiving responsibilities, and gender values. Results reveal that family size, caregiving burdens, and economic stability are key determinants of fertility intentions, with significant gendered and contextual differences across countries. Our findings are particularly robust for individuals with no children or one child, among whom the identified patterns are most pronounced. Our findings suggest that short-term fertility intentions are not merely demographic data, but a key indicator of unmet gender-based needs, revealing a latent potential for social and political mobilization. These findings highlight the influence of gender regimes on reproductive decision-making and underscore the need for policies that address structural inequalities to support fertility intentions in diverse socioeconomic contexts.