ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Sustain.
Sec. Nature-Based Solutions
This article is part of the Research TopicEnhancing Woody Plant Growth and Resilience Through Nature-Based SolutionsView all 14 articles
Future protective forests: A regional forecast on potential natural conditions of woody species impacted by climate change along the Austrian railway corridor
Provisionally accepted
Helene Mueller1*
Stephan Hoerbinger1Sebastian Lehner2Christoph Matulla2Tabea Fian3Georg Hauger3Christian Rachoy4Hans Peter Rauch1- 1BOKU University, Institute of Soil Bioengineering and Landscape Construction, Department of Landscape, Water and Infrastructure, Peter-Jordan Strasse 82, Vienna, Austria
- 2GeoSphere Austria, Department for Climate Impact Research, Hohe Warte 38, 1190, Vienna, Austria
- 3TU Wien, Vienna University of Technology, Institute of Spatial Planning, Karlsgasse 11, 1040, Vienna, Austria
- 4ÖBB Austrian Federal Railways Infrastructure, Department of Geotechnics and Natural Hazard Management, Praterstern 3, 1020, Vienna, Austria
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Railway corridors, as linear landscape structures, are highly exposed to natural hazards. In alpine regions intact protective forests form a key basis for safeguarding the route network by complementing technical protection measures through forest-related ecosystem services. From a long-term perspective, these benefits are only generated by resilient and vital forest stands. To maintain sustainable services and benefits under climate change, an understanding of the biological system and its future developments is essential. Difficulties lie in long reaction times of forest stands to management actions and a broad range of species, that need to be considered. The method used in this study focuses on the extrapolation of potential natural stands based on basic climate parameters by developing a two-dimensional climatic space, describing natural stands for 46 species in all 26 operational units of the Austrian railway corridor. First, we analyzed the current distribution of woody plant species using a climate-envelope modeling approach. Secondly climatic conditions of the Austrian railway network were evaluated and modelled for future climate change scenarios. In the synthesis of steps one and two, potential natural stands were detected, quantified, contextualized and compared to the reference period 1961-2020. Several promising species were detected for future climate scenarios and European wide trends were confirmed on the regional scale. Especially Castanea sativa, Ulmus minor and Sorbus torminalis can help generating vital stands that can deliver the protective functions we are aiming for. The results mark an initial step toward climate-change-adapted protective forest management by detecting changes in natural site conditions and predicting vulnerable areas along the Austrian railway corridor, offering a management tool for infrastructure operators to guide future species selection and assess risks to protective forest functions.
Keywords: Biodiversity, Climate change mitigation, ecosystem services, forest management, Natural Hazard, Nature based solutions, protectiveforests, Woody vegetation
Received: 19 Sep 2025; Accepted: 12 Feb 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 Mueller, Hoerbinger, Lehner, Matulla, Fian, Hauger, Rachoy and Rauch. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Helene Mueller
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