ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Sustain. Food Syst.
Sec. Climate-Smart Food Systems
Volume 9 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2025.1447593
Measuring the Effects of Climate Change on Traditional Crops in Tropical Highlands, Ecuador
Provisionally accepted
Sheila Serrano-Vincenti1,2,3*
Jessica Guamán Pozo4
Jonathan Alexis Chuqui1,3,5
Rodrigo Tufiño3,6
Christian Franco-Crespo7*- 1Research Center in Environmental Modeling, Salesian Polytechnic University, Guayaquil, Ecuador
- 2Research Group in Ecology and Management of Natural Resources, Salesian Polytechnic University, Quito, Ecuador
- 3Universidad Politécnica Salesiana, Quito, Ecuador
- 4Quito Metropolitan University Technological Institute, Quito, Ecuador
- 5Research Group in Ecology and Natural Resources Management GIERENA, Quito, Ecuador
- 6Computer Engineering, Research Group IDEIAGEOCA, Quito, Ecuador
- 7Faculty of Food Science and Engineering and Biotechnology, Universidad Técnica de Ambato, Ambato, Ecuador
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Studying the climate of the Tropical Central Andes is challenging due to its complex topography, diverse climatic regions shaped by the Andean Mountains, and the scarcity of in-situ meteorological data. This limitation complicates assessments of climate variability and its impact on agriculture. This study evaluates the impact of 2050 climate change scenarios on blackberry, tree tomato, maize, and potato production in Tungurahua, Ecuador, by estimating water availability for rainfed crops. In-situ available meteorological data were collected and analyzed using the Climdex methodology to assess long-term climatic trends. Additionally, the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) was employed to model agricultural productivity under pessimistic and optimistic climate scenarios. Climate change projections to 2050 were based on data from Ecuador's Third and Fourth National Communications on Climate Change. The results indicate that, to date, climate change effects in this region have not been significant; higher temperatures have reduced frost occurrence, and no substantial increases in extreme rainfall or droughts have been observed. However, future projections suggest increased precipitation, a higher likelihood of extreme rainfall, and a decline in drought frequency. These expected changes highlight the need for adaptive strategies in agricultural planning and water resource management.
Keywords: GAMs, water availability, Rainfed crops, projected scenarios, ClimDEX
Received: 12 Jun 2024; Accepted: 05 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Serrano-Vincenti, Pozo, Chuqui, Tufiño and Franco-Crespo. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Sheila Serrano-Vincenti, Research Center in Environmental Modeling, Salesian Polytechnic University, Guayaquil, Ecuador
Christian Franco-Crespo, Faculty of Food Science and Engineering and Biotechnology, Universidad Técnica de Ambato, Ambato, Ecuador
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