Price Transmission and Market Integration Analysis of Black Gram (Urad Dal) across major Indian States

Background: Black gram (Vigna mungo), a key pulse crop in India, serves as a major protein source with significant health benefits. Predominantly grown in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan, its cultivation in Punjab remains limited due to the paddy-wheat dominance. Understanding the trends in black gram cultivation and market behaviour is crucial for improving its production and market efficiency, particularly in the context of policy-driven diversification and market integration. Methods: This study examines the area, production, and yield trends of black gram from 1970 to 2024, along with wholesale price data from 2014 to 2024 across selected states, to assess market integration and price behaviour. Various statistical tools, including CAGR, decomposition analysis, instability analysis, seasonal indices, correlation analysis, Johansen co-integration, Granger causality, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), impulse response function, and variance decomposition, were used for data analysis. Results: The findings indicate that black gram production and price dynamics are influenced by multiple factors. Decomposition analysis reveals the varying impact of area, yield, and interaction effects, while the Cuddy-Della Valle index highlights production instability. Seasonal indices confirm price and production fluctuations, emphasizing the need for targeted policy interventions. Strong price integration among states is evident, with high correlation coefficients and long-run equilibrium relationships. VECM suggests efficient price adjustments, and Granger causality identifies Madhya Pradesh as the key price-determining market. Impulse response and variance decomposition confirm the transmission of price shocks across states, reinforcing their interdependence. Conclusion: To enhance black gram production and market stability, investments in high-yielding and climate-resilient varieties, improved storage, transportation, and processing infrastructure are essential. Strengthening market information systems, refining procurement mechanisms, and expanding digital platforms like e-NAM can improve price discovery and farmer participation. Promoting black gram in Punjab through diversification incentives and assured marketing systems can reduce resource overuse while improving farm incomes.