ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Sustain. Food Syst.
Sec. Agricultural and Food Economics
Volume 9 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2025.1594210
This article is part of the Research TopicEnhancing Food Security and Trade Resilience in Sustainable Agricultural SystemsView all 25 articles
Dynamic influence of international price fluctuation on soybean market price in China: Based on Bayesian-VAR model
Provisionally accepted
- Huzhou University, Huzhou, China
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Under the suppression of Trump 2.0 tariffs in the United States, fluctuations in agricultural product prices have become one of the significant risks to the security of China's supply chain, especially for soybeans which are greatly affected by the US market. [Methodology] Based on the monthly data of international and Chinese soybean futures prices and spot prices from May 2008 to October 2024, this paper constructs a Bayesian VAR model to explore the transmission path of international price fluctuations to Chinese soybean futures and spot prices. [Innovation] Different from many previous studies, this paper adopts the Bayesian VAR model, which can alleviate overfitting more effectively than the VAR model, improve the prediction accuracy, and reflect the dynamic impact of price fluctuations more accurately. [Conclusion]The results show that fluctuations in international market prices have a significant price discovery effect on the Chinese soybean market, which can help participants in the upstream and downstream of the supply chain reduce the risk of price fluctuations in the short term. However, the hedging function of the futures market still needs to be improved in the long term.
Keywords: Author Contributions:methodology,S.C., data curation,S.C., writing-original draft preparation, X.X., modification,L.Z., project administration, L.Z No Fund Not applicable Bayesian-VAR model, Soybean, Price discovery, International price fluctuation
Received: 15 Mar 2025; Accepted: 19 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Xu, Cai and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Lingyu Zhang, Huzhou University, Huzhou, China
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