Real and simulated shocks to the food system: a nested food-economic system model for assessing resilience using a networked Input-Output approach

Catherine Brinkley^1*John Ulimwengu²Subhashni Raj³

• ¹University of California, Davis, Davis, United States
• ²International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States
• ³University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, United States

This study provides a novel, system-wide framework that integrates food and economic systems using networked input-output. We demonstrate this framework in analyzing food system resilience to real and simulated sector-level shocks, yielding insight into how structural vulnerabilities within the economy can compromise the food system and vice versa. The nested and networked approach of considering the food system as embedded within the overall economic system, enables predictions within and across both systems as they relate to one another. We focus on recovery and resiliency after a shock by evaluating the U.S. food and economic system in 2007 and 2012, a period covering a major financial downturn. We find that between 2007 and 2012, the majority (82.2%) of food systems sectors increased in centrality compared to other sectors within the economy, showing how the food system became more integral in the overall economic system during and after the financial crisis. Further, we demonstrate that simulated removal of sectors with the highest centrality in the economic system leads to a decrease in overall network density, clustering, degree, and weighted degree—highlighting vulnerabilities within each economic sector with the potential to propagate system-wide. We draw timely attention to the critical role of scientific research as an important sector within the economy that requires relatively little funding input, but amplifies economic outputs across the food system and other economic sectors. We conclude by warning about the bias produced in analyzing food system dynamics outside of overall economic systems and urge future research to consider a nested food-economic resilience model.