Advancing the Next-Generation of Global Food System Scenarios: A critical review of existing narratives

Bhawana Gupta^1*Monika Zurek¹Jim Woodhill¹JOHN S.I. INGRAM^1,2,3

• ¹University of Oxford, environmental change institute, Oxford, United Kingdom
• ²Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
• ³Birmingham Leadership Institute, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom

The recent global crises suggest that historic and current trends in the food system become less relevant when frequently disrupted by unexpected events, such as trade conflicts, the rise of inwardlooking, right-wing governments, or another global pandemic. In the face of food insecurity, the foresight community is more strongly emphasising the need to consider various plausible scenarios when preparing cri2cal strategies within and around the intricate global food system. As scenarios have been developed for many decades, two ques2ons arise: how is the food system community engaging in scenario planning, par2cularly given the urgent need for transforma2on coupled with current poly-crisis; and what is needed to enhance the process of scenario planning for the global food system? Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to cri2cally review exis2ng scenarios on global food systems, published by key organisa2ons and authors in the last eight years, to iden2fy common themes of plausible food system futures, the key uncertain2es and emerging radical ideas. The paper is based on an induc2ve clustering framework that offers a method for evalua2ng the poten2al outcomes of varying governance structures and policy ac2ons within scenario clusters across key dimensionshealth and nutri2on, livelihoods and equity, and climate and environment. The cri2cal analysis of the scenario clusters leads to two important findings: (i) megatrends such as shiSing demography, technology and consump2on paTerns are oSen central in reviewed scenario exercises, and radical no2ons have not significantly evolved but have taken on new dimensions; and (ii) while factors like consump2on paTerns, technology, and investment influence food systems significantly, governance structures play a crucial role in shaping the environment for these factors to interact. This underscores the importance of adap2ve policymaking in responding to evolving uncertain2es. This study provides a strong founda2on for designing a next-genera2on global food system scenario exercise. It calls for a more ambi2ous, inclusive, and innova2ve approach for delving into a broader range of uncertain2es, radical forces of change and priori2sing the interroga2on of drivers related to geopoli2cal tensions, technological innova2ons, governance, social influences, and social inequali2es.