Tobacco Cultivation in Yunnan: An Integrated Analysis of Economic Trends and Diversification

Jie Song¹Jiang Wu¹Xiangyang Li²Qingong Ning¹Wei Liu¹Zefan Liu³Guoyi Yuan⁴Haichang Huang⁵Yifeng Guo⁶Yipeng Zhuang^6,7*Yuxiang Bai^4*Wang Ge^4*Dingchun Zi^4*

• ¹China Tobacco Yunnan lmport and Export Co., Ltd.,, Kunming, China
• ²China Tobacco Yunnan lmport and Export Co., Ltd., Kunming, China, Kunming, China
• ³Yunnan Tobacco Company Qujing City Company Luliang Branch, Qujing, China
• ⁴Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming, China
• ⁵Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School,, Shenzhen, China
• ⁶Demetech Limited, Hongkong, Hong Kong, SAR China
• ⁷LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hongkong, Hong Kong, SAR China

This study conducts an integrated analysis of the impacts of tobacco cultivation on farmers in Yunnan Province using machine learning and econometric methods, drawing on detailed micro-level survey data collected from 253 households. Our findings highlight the significant role of tobacco income within household income structures, demonstrating its competitiveness compared to other crops. Through interpretable machine learning techniques and advanced econometric methods, the analysis reveals that expanding tobacco cultivation is associated with improvements in certain indicators of farmers’ quality of life, although the benefits vary with the scale of production. Additionally, the promotion of agricultural diversification by the Tobacco Bureau has shown positive effects, despite challenges such as localized disadvantages, such as poor soil quality, limited access to irrigation, and remoteness from markets. The results emphasize the need for optimizing cropping structures by adjusting crop combinations, planting schedules, and resource allocation to improve yield and sustainability and improving management practices to maximize the benefits of tobacco cultivation while supporting sustainable agricultural development.